Friday 21 December 2012

Match preview: Blues vs. Burnley


I’ve got a good feeling about this game. After a fantastic comeback against Crystal Palace last week, we face a Burnley team in the bottom half of the Championship, only a few points above ourselves, they are without a win in four matches. I’m feeling pretty confident of a fourth home win of the season.

Burnley’s recent history

Wade Elliott will have happy memories of playing for Burnley, as it was his goal in the 2009 play-off final against Sheffield United that saw the Clarets reach England’s top division for the first time in 33 years. They weren’t to perish entirely in the Premiership, as they were beaten just once at home in the first half of the season, and could celebrate a memorable victory over Manchester United at Turf Moor in August and sat midtable on the turn of the year. However, Owen Coyle leaving for local rivals Bolton in January didn’t help them, and Brian Law’s failed in his attempts to emulate Coyle’s successes and keep Burnley up. Just 3 wins in the second half of the season saw them slump to relegation alongside Portsmouth and Hull.

The rebuilding process for Burnley doesn’t seem to have come into fruition since. After a mediocre start to the 2010-11 campaign, Brian Laws was sacked as manager in December 2010 and replaced by the young Eddie Howe. Howe failed to make an instant impact in terms of recharging Burnley’s promotion push; however, his signing on a free of Charlie Austin is still proving to be marvellous piece of business, having already scored 35 goals from 66 games for the club.

In terms of finding a play-off spot, the following season was equally unproductive as Burnley slumped to 13th. This season however, saw another managerial change as Eddie Howe left the club in late October to take charge of his hometown team, Bournemouth. His replacement, Sean Dyche has had a mixed start to life with his new club after leaving Watford, with three wins, three draws and three defeats.

Burnley’s current form

The clarets are now without a win in four games under Dyche, though that doesn’t tell the full story, as three of those games have ended in draws. The former Watford defender’s impact seems to have been to make Burnley more brittle at the back, but less of a goalscoring threat.

In Eddie Howe’s first 13 matches this season before leaving for Bournemouth, the team scored 26 goals, which averages exactly 2 per game. In addition to this, he got the best out of Charlie Austin, who netted 15 league goals in that time, more than 1 a game. However, the team also had a tendency to give cheap goals away, conceding 29- an average of 2.2 goals per match.

Dyche has entirely reversed this. In his opening 9 games in charge, Burnley have scored just 7 goals (0.8 per game) but they’ve only conceded 8 (0.9 per game). Charlie Austin’s form under Dyche hasn’t capitulated with a respectable 4 goals, almost a goal in 2 games, but he hasn’t been able to hold onto the magnificent form he showed under Eddie Howe at all. No prizes for guessing where Dyche's priorities lie. Perhaps a factor behind this change in mentality has been the change in formation Dyche has brought in. For all his away matches so far, he’s played a 4-5-1 formation with Austin up front on his own, but with attacking wingers and a narrow central midfield. Most of their results under Dyche have come by them grinding teams down and hitting them on the counter-attack.

In short, the inconsistent form Burnley showed with Eddie Howe as manager hasn’t really changed since Dyche’s arrival, but the way in which they’ve dropped their points has. Under Howe, they were a freescoring team with defensive frailties, whereas under Dyche they’ve become more of a tough nut to crack, but look less competent going forward.

The dangerman

I’ll be honest… I feel slightly hesitant about predicting who Burnley’s dangerman is, because I talked about Glenn Murray for Crystal Palace last week and he scored twice! You'll have to forgive me if Charlie Austin gets a brace this weekend, but he is without doubt Burnley’s key player and their top scorer by some distance. Three years ago, Austin was in fact playing non-league football for Poole Town in the Wessex League Premier Division, before getting a trial at Swindon and he’s never looked back since.

He had been an incredibly consistent goalscorer for the Robins, scoring 37 goals in 65 games, though his second season was injury-plagued and Swindon finished bottom of League one. Burnley took advantage and snapped up the prolific striker on a free transfer, and he’s currently having probably his best season of his career to date, with 19 goals from 21 games. If you were to bet on a Burnley goalscorer, Charlie Austin would be the one to go for, but here’s hoping we can keep him at bay.

Expected starting XI

Hayden Mullins is back in the squad after a suspension, but should have no guarantee of a place in the starting line-up, as his replacements, Papa Bouba Diop and Callum Reilly both impressed last week- Diop got himself on the scoresheet and has now extended his stay at Blues to another month. We’ll still be without Jonathon Spector and Darren Ambrose, Paul Caddis picked up an injury in the game against Palace, but Nikola Zigic and Pablo Ibanez look to have returned to full fitness.

Butland; Hancox, Davies, Caldwell, Robinson; Burke, Diop, Reilly, Elliott; King, Zigic

My prediction

Because of Burnley having tightened up with Dyche in charge, I don’t think we’ll win this game at a canter, but we’re capable of edging it. Nikola Zigic made a massive difference to the team when he came on as a sub last week, so I’d fancy him for goal as well as Marlon King, and Austin for Burnley. 2-1


Have we met before?

In the 2006-07 season, Blues played Burnley twice resulting in away wins in both games. In November 2006, Blues had won 5 of their last 6, but had suffered a setback last week when Jody Craddock scored a late equalizer for Wolves. Despite making a strong start to the season, Burnley had lost their last two matches including a 3-0 defeat at West Brom the week before. Baggies, thanks for softening them up for us. Some poor defending from Blues allowed Chris McCann to tap home just 5 minutes in to open the scoring for Burnley. However, they weren’t to hold that lead for long as Arsenal loanee Nicklas Bendtner, incidentally now on loan at Italian giants Juventus, unexpectedly scored when an attempted clearance bounced off another Burnley defender and into the Dane’s path. Bendtner was to play a decent part in that promotion season, scoring 11 goals from 34 league games. But Blues weren’t done yet, Steve Bruce clearly felt the initiative in the second half and gambled by bringing on DJ Campbell late on, and the gamble paid off. Campbell scored with just his first touch of the game, scrambling the ball home as Clarets keeper Brian Jensen failed to collect Bendtner’s cross. The goal ensured that Blues would stay in the automatic promotion places, and that Burnley’s bright start to the season would soon dissipate.

However, the two teams met again in April and Burnley at least got some revenge for that late defeat. On what was the day after my birthday, Burnley travelled to St. Andrews for the start of the Championship easter program. Since that meeting back in November, Burnley had in fact only won twice and were well inside the bottom half of the division, but the timing of the match didn’t suit Blues perfectly, as Burnley were on the back of a 4-0 win against Plymouth the week before. Blues had been rather inconsistent in recent weeks, having lost at Norwich, but seemed to be steadily improving as they salvaged a point with 10 men at West Brom and comfortably beat Coventry.
The first half of that game proved to be a rather dour one, but Blues needed the win and so attacked Burnley in the second half, Bruce taking off the defensive-minded Tunisian Medhi Nafti and putting on DJ Campbell, in hope that he’d come on to score the winner like he did at Turf Moor earlier in the season. However, the gamble wasn’t to pay off on this occasion. As Blues pushed further and further forward, Burnley hit us on the counterattack and John Spicer provided a thumping finish late on to give Burnley all three points.
Burnley went on to finish a season of mediocrity in 15th, but it seemed to be the complete opposite for Blues. We lost the Monday afterwards at Barnsley, but managed to bounce back from an awful Easter period with 4 straight wins, ensuring a speedy return to the Premier League.

My Premiership predictions

Merry Christmas to all scorers.

This weekend, Arsenal will want to build on their fabulous win at Reading when they play crumbling Wigan who sit in the relegation zone, Reading are in desperate need of points but are unlikely to get any at the Etihad, QPR, in a similar position, take the long trip up north with more hope at injury-stricken Newcastle and in-form Southampton host the Black Cats in a relegation six-pointer.

Norwich's unbeaten run is showing no signs of stopping, but they won't have it easy in their trip to the Hawthorns, Liverpool and Fulham play each other, both of whom on the back of disappointing defeats. The race for fourth looks to intensify as Tottenham and Everton play tough-tackling, hardworking teams Stoke and West Ham respectively, and Chelsea need to bounce back from Club World Cup disappointments by beating Villa who are off the back of an impressive win at Anfield.

Assuming Man City do the necessary against Reading, Man Utd will have to win in their arguably harder match at Swansea on Sunday to restore the 6pt gap. Here are my predictions:

Wigan vs. Arsenal

I can see an emphatic Arsenal win here. The massive win at Reading on Monday was an important one in quietening Wenger's critics after going out of the cup to Bradford, and in some ways typified Arsenal's inconsistency over the past 8 years or so. There is an argument that he perhaps shouldn't get brownie points for winning a game against Reading - who are bottom with the worst defensive record - that they should have won anyway. However, Wigan haven't conceded many fewer goals, and I think they'll be the next victims of Arsenal's ressurection.

Partly because of injuries to Ramis amongst others for Wigan, they've changed to a formation that incorporates 3 at the back. Arsenal can exploit this. If Podolski and Walcott are on the wings for Arsenal, their movement and pace should unhinge this potentially unstable Wigan defence and create plenty of chances. I also believe that Giroud will grow into the role as centre-forward and become a man to put them away, to put Arsenal's quest for 4th back on track. As for Wigan, it's now the job of Martinez to convert the doubters for a third season in a row, and playing Arsenal, Everton and Man Utd in their next four games won't be an easy way of picking up points, but then they never seem to do it the easy way. I'm going to go as far as saying Arsenal to win 1-4.

Del says: 0-3

Man City vs. Reading

There's no way Reading can win this. They just can't seem to defend at the moment and  stand very little chance of getting anything, but I also think they should play this match with a 'nothing to lose' attitude. The only way they can stay up is if they can win a match like this, in which no-one expects them to get anything but they manage to pull together, get a shock result and kick on. That's the only way I could see a way out for them.

I don't think they'll do it though. Man City will have too much for them and I'd expect Silva to pull the strings in the space just in front of the defence that Reading often leave exposed- that's been the source of a lot of their goals conceded this season and the Spaniard certainly has the quality and creativity to make them pay. 3-0.

Del says: 3-1

Newcastle vs. QPR

Last week's win at Fulham would be no good to QPR if they can't build on it with a result at St. James's. Because of where they are in the table, they now need to start putting results together. Although my season prediction remains to consist of QPR's relegation, they've changed their manager early enough to give themselves a chance. If they could get their second win of the season here that would be an important boost.

If Sunderland and Southampton weren't playing each other, Newcastle could be in the relegation zone at the end of this weekend. Some Toon fans are unhappy about the Europa League being used as an excuse for their poor season, but I think it has to be a factor. Yes they would have expected to be doing better but having to play on Thursday nights seriously messes up teams' mental preparation for matches, and it's lead to more injuries.

I'll go for a draw. I'm back Newcastle to stay up once they're out of Europe and have their full squad back, but the belief is obviously still with QPR after their win against Fulham, so I think they'll pick up a result here, 1 apiece.

Del says: 2-0

Southampton vs. Sunderland

The Saints having picked up 10pts from their last 5 matches, their impressive home form with  12pts from 9 games at St Marys, and their ability to score goals gives me a lot of confidence in their ability to stay up. However, they'll need to win this one as they've got a fairly tough run of games before the new year, they've played two more home matches than away so far and their game in hand is against Chelsea. It certainly won't be easy for them, but I can see a lot of self-belief in that squad, and would actually back them to stay in the league for another season at the moment.

Sunderland have got a top notch manager in Martin O'Neill and they have definately got Premiership quality attacking players, like Johnson, Sessegnon and Fletcher, but it's about getting those players on the ball and in form. You have to think that this is their best chance of picking up points for a while- they've got Man City, Tottenham and Liverpool after this match, so they'll need to make it count.

The 2 week break Southampton may mean a loss of momentum, but it could also re-vitalise them. If they can come out of the starting blocks early in this one then they'll have a great chance, as conceding goals in the first half and then only starting to play when it's too late has been the story of Sunderland's season so far. 2-1 the Saints.

Del says: 2-0

Tottenham vs. Stoke

Some people are saying that Stoke's physical and height advantage will unsettle Tottenham but I think it'll actually be the opposite. Bale's return will be a big plus for them, him and Lennon's pace on the flanks should be able to run rings around Stoke- they'll be able to get in between Stoke's legs and create a couple of chances for Defoe.

If this game was being played at the Britannia, I'd give the Potters more of a shout but White Hart Lane is a bigger pitch and Stoke don't win many away games, so I think they'll struggle. Defoe to get on the scoresheet, in a pretty comfortable 2-0 Tottenham win.

Del says: 2-1

West Brom vs. Norwich

Although these clubs are in the same position in the table, they've had opposite first halves of a season to each other. West Brom started like a rocket, beating Liverpool and Everton early on and built up a great home record. However, only a 0-0 draw at home to West Ham prevented them from losing their 5th game in a row, and they have now failed to score in 5 hours of football.

Norwich have done things in a different order. They really struggled early on in the season and looked a good bet for relegation when they lost 5-2 at home to Liverpool. But in mid-October, they beat Arsenal and haven't looked back since, going on a breathtaking 10 game unbeaten run and beating Manchester United along the way.

The one thing they do have in common is that both managers, Steve Clarke and Chris Hughton have done remarkably well to be well into the top half of the table at this stage, considering the teams were widely tipped for relegation before the season started. West Brom to break their scoring duck but Norwich to hold onto their unbeaten run, which I think would please both sets of fans. 1-1.

Del says: 1-0


West Ham vs. Everton

Yet again, I'd like to give David Moyes some credit, this time for the way he handled the Fellaini situation. A lot of managers in those circumstances would have gone into the interview with a strong sense of agenda for their club, trying to somehow defend their player or evade answering the question, but Moyes was brilliantly honest and showed a lot of integrity, which I really respected.

What Fellaini did was shameful, and he can consider himself lucky that it was only a 3 match ban. He's let down his teammates as well because the Toffees will unquestionably miss him in this match- they've geared so much of their play this season around getting the ball to the Belgian direct and letting him spearhead attacking moves, but now they've got to try and find a plan B.

I'm going to go with my instinct and say West Ham to win. They might have only won one of their last 6 games, but Allardyce rarely let's his side go too long without a victory, so I've got a sneaky feeling they'll get the win on Saturday. Fellaini is the kind of player for Everton that when he plays well, the team plays well and everything flows. The Toffees are missing the beating heart of their attack and I don't think they'll score goals without him, so 1-0 to the Hammers.

Del says: 1-3

Liverpool vs. Fulham

Liverpool's performance against Aston Villa last week was dreadful, and I think they'll approach this match with a real point to prove. Despite not having a great league position, it might be interesting to note that they are averaging 2pts a game in Premiership matches after a defeat, and they've never lost 2 games consecutively. I think that tells you something about Brendan Rodger's motivational skills and he'll have them bouncing back from that loss against Villa, I'm sure of it.

Fulham might be the joint-5th highest goalscorers in the Premiership, but they're also in lower-midtable, so that tells you something about their defence. Only Wigan, QPR, Reading and Southampton have conceded more goals. I feel that the opportunity for a very big win is there for Liverpool and think youngster Sterling, having just signed a new long-term contract with the club, will get in amongst Fulham's aging defence with his pace. This is a bit risky I know, but I'm going to go 4-0 Liverpool.

Del says: 1-1

Swansea vs. Man Utd

It might be a tougher game this weekend for United than for City, but I'd still expect Man Utd to win. Carrick and Cleverley are starting to form and exciting-looking partnership in midfield for United. They can both pass the ball rather well, Carrick is good at holding his position, reading the game, protecting the defence and keeping the shape of the team in place. Cleverley though, is more expansive and plays with a lot of confidence, he's very good at linking up play and some of the runs off the ball he makes are top class. At first I thought the introduction of Cleverley was down to United having to cut costs because of their debt, by developing academy products to fill in the gaps a bit but he's proving me wrong so far. Looks to be the real deal.

I read somewhere that Swansea need a good January so they don't start 'looking nervously over their shoulders', but I don't believe that for a second. They're having a fantastic season, sit some 8pts above the relegation zone and there are 8 teams currently more likely to go down than them. Unless they lose all of their games until the end of February or something, they'll be just fine, but I couldn't see past a United win on Sunday, and the return of Vidic, Jones and Smalling should boost their defence to a clean sheet, in a 0-2 win.

Del says: 0-4

Chelsea vs. Aston Villa

Chelsea's 5-1 win at Leeds has been significantly overdramatised in my opinion. Yes, it was mildly impressive that they had the legs to score so many in the second half, after travelling back from Japan a couple of days earlier, but let's be honest: Leeds are a midtable Championship club, and if Chelsea weren't beating them, people would be saying there's a massive problem at the club. A sense of perspective is in order I think.

Villa got a wonderful win at Liverpool last week, and if Benteke had cost the same as Michu or perhaps Sebastien Bassong, I'd say he would be buy of the season. Paying £7 million for him though, means that Lambert shouldn't be too grateful for what he's done. I think his performances is more evidence for the rise of Belgium in world football, because although he plays in a slightly different position, he's a similar type of player to Fellaini at Everton- i.e. he's absolutely pivotal to the team. When he has a good game, everyone else does too and I'm not sure Villa would be as far out of trouble as they are without Benteke. I don't just mean in terms of his goals, but they way he holds that team together and brings the best out of everyone too.

This game is being played at the wrong time from Chelsea's point of view. They've had to travel thousands of miles, they played in midweek and I don't think Benitez can squeeze enough from that tub of toothpaste to find a win here. Villa are off the back of a brilliant result and the whole team looks to be clicking now, playing with a lot of confidence and I think they'll have more than enough to get a point here. 1-1.

Del says: 1-1

Wednesday 19 December 2012

Why Manchester United won't run away with the Premiership title

If you had to offer me a prediction now, as to who will win the title this season, I would be more than inclined to say Manchester United. They've got a six point lead, they've beaten City on their own turf and are notoriously good at doing the business in the back-end of the season. 

Having said that, I don't think they'll win the title with total ease. Man City will still have a big gain in terms of not playing matches in Europe in midweek, they've got a more solid defence and the spending power to invest in January. Here are some reasons why United may struggle to finish the job in the second half of the season.

Man Utd's poor defensive record


Let's examine where the defensive record of the past Premiership title winners has ranked amongst that of the other teams in the league:

2011-12, Man City, best defensive record
2010-11, Man Utd 2nd defensive record
2009-10, Chelsea, 2nd defensive record
2008-09, Man Utd, joint-best defensive record
2007-08, Man Utd, best defensive record
2006-07, Man Utd, joint-2nd defensive record
2005-06, Chelsea, best defensive record
2004-05, Chelsea, best defensive record
2003-04, Arsenal, best defensive record
2002-03, Man Utd, best defensive record

Currently 2012-13, Man Utd, joint-10th defensive record

6 times in the past 10 seasons, the team to win the Premiership title has been the team with the best defensive record, and the champions have never had less than the 2nd best defensive record. Manchester United have currently got the 10th best defensive record.

Having said that, they have missed the likes of Jones, Smalling and Vidic and particularly Vidic will make a big difference so I would expect their defensive record to improve, but you'd still expect them to be doing better than having conceded the same number of goals as Aston Villa and Sunderland.

Van Persie's goals have been pivotal- what if he gets injured?

Leading on from the point about their defensive record, they've been let off the hook from this several times by having a fantastic ability to come from behind and score goals. Can they continue to rely on

People make the point about United having great attacking options, which I wouldn't completely disagree with. Although Welbeck is being slightly overrated in my opinion, Hernandez is a fantastic impact substitute and any team would be very happy to have those players.

Despite this, I do feel there is a big reliance on Robin van Persie this season, as his 12 Premiership goals have won United 16 points. Of course there's an argument that if van Persie wasn't playing, another striker would and they'd get some of those goals back, but I don't reckon they'd have got as many with Chicharito. Plus, the Mexican adds nothing in terms of experience in build-up play and his sole focus is on scoring goals in the box, whereas van Persie provides the team with some more creativity, having already got 5 assists.

However, my concern for United would be that van Persie won't be at his best if he's playing constantly in the Champions League on Wednesdays and in the Premiership on weekends. There'll need to be an element of prioritizing and team rotation from Ferguson to stop RVP suffering from jadedness.

Also, you have to question what would happen if he picked up a long-term injury. Here, I'm not saying: "van Persie will get injured, therefore United won't score goals, therefore they'll lose games, therefore they'll lose the title." The point I'm making is that you can't predict what will happen in the second half of the season. An injury could easily happen to Tevez or Aguero for City, but because you don't know when or where injuries will occur, it seems premature to say that Man United will run away with the title.

United have the harder run-in

United run-in post Manchester derby:
Stoke (a)
Aston Villa (h)
Arsenal (a)
Chelsea (h)
Swansea (h)
West Brom (a)

City run-in post Manchester derby:
West Brom (h)
Tottenham (a)
West Ham (h)
Swansea (a)
Reading (a)
Norwich (h(

Of the two clubs' fixtures towards the end of the season, United have definately got it harder. They go away to Stoke who are yet to be beaten at home, then they play rivals Arsenal and Chelsea, and West Brom who have also got a great home record at the moment. Four games there, in which there's a fair chance United could drop points. 

City have to go Tottenham which will be a hard game, but all of their other matches, apart from maybe Swansea away where they slipped up last season, ought to be quite straightforward.

Let's not also forget that United might be in the quarter-finals or semi-finals of the Champions League around this period, whereas Man City's team will be spending the whole week focusing on the game ahead, which I think will be a big advantage.

To conclude

People who predict Manchester United to win this years' title at a canter, with a 6pt lead as early on in the season as December have obviously forgotten the 8pt lead they blew away last season in April. On the other hand, if United can get themselves in that position again, I don't believe they'll throw it away, because some of the younger players in the squad will have learnt from that experience and they won't want it to happen to them twice.

On balance, the next few weeks will be important in the title race. If City can damage limitate and reduce the gap to 4 or 5pts, they'll have a good chance in the back end of the season once the Champions League starts and United have other competitions to worry about. However, if United can maintain the gap or even extend it, then I think they'll have enough strength in depth to finish the job and win the title back.

Tuesday 18 December 2012

Why QPR are still heading for the drop

This weekend, QPR got their belated first win of the season against Fulham which has caused a lot of pundits to suggest that they can stay up if they can keep Taarabt fit and in form. My personal opinion is that they won't. Yes, the win gives them a fighting chance, but I see it as a result that merely prevents their task from being impossible, rather than a season-changer.

If people predict a team to stay up only on the weekends they win, their minds would change each week because every team wins at some stage. You've got to keep a sense of perspective. Here are some reasons why I remain convinced QPR will go down.

1. They've drawn too much against the teams near the bottom.

Here, I'm considering Aston Villa, Newcastle, Sunderland, Southampton, Wigan and Reading to be all of the teams who could potentially get relegated. QPR have played all of these teams, apart from Newcastle, once. Three of those five matches were at home. Let's have a look at the points that they've picked up:

Results against bottom clubs
Played- 5
Won- 0
Drawn- 4 (Reading, Sunderland, Villa and Wigan)
Lost- 1 (Southampton)
Points- 4

Results against other clubs
Played- 12
Won- 1 (Fulham)
Drawn- 4 (Norwich, Chelsea, Everton, Reading)
Lost- 8 (Swansea, Man City, Tottenham, West Ham, West Brom, Arsenal, Stoke, Man Utd)
Points- 7

Once they've visited St James's Park next week, they'll have played all of the bottom clubs once and possibly won't have beaten any of them. For a team trying to stay up, you're in dangerous territory when you're relying on wins against teams in the top ten for points. The bottom line is, it's imperative that for the most part, you can beat the teams around you if you want to keep yourself in the division, and QPR haven't done that. I reckon they'll now need to beat almost all of the bottom clubs in the second half of the season, which will be incredibly tough given that all the other teams will be scrapping for the points too.

2. Harry Redknapp hasn't made as big an impact as some suggest.

An interesting statistic is that Harry Redknapp has managed QPR to more points in his first 4 games in charge (6) than Mark Hughes had for the whole of the season beforehand (4). Some people might see this as a telling stat and that it suggests Harry will transform QPR's fortunes like he did at Spurs- I think you've got to look at the matter in more detail.

Firstly, you're comparing Redknapp doing a decent job, to how poorly Hughes was doing. By comparison, Redknapp looks like he is doing an amazing job, when in fact all he's done is not lose to teams QPR should be looking to beat. It was quite clear that things weren't going to work out for QPR under Hughes, and he couldn't get anything like the best out of the team. Appointing a higher-calibre manager in Redknapp does give QPR a better chance of staying up, but because of their situation I don't think they will.

As for the increase in points, all of Harry's first 4 matches in charge have been against teams they should have been looking to beat, in the bottom half of the table. Sunderland, Villa and Wigan are all teams that could become sucked into the relegation zone, and given how far adrift QPR were when they played them, they probably needed to take the opportunity to win. 

I just think it's ludicrous that after three draws against teams they ought to have tried to beat or get at least 6 points out of, because they beat Fulham who are below midtable, people now think they will stay up. 

The fact that Harry's first four in charge were winnable games, means the fixture list swung greatly in QPR's favour, but they couldn't take advantage.

3. They've got a very difficult start to the new year.

Even if they can pick up another couple wins before new year, they could be about to be pegged back again in their quest for survival, as they have a very tricky-looking January. They'll have trips to Chelsea and West Ham, and host Tottenham and Man City. The so-called 'Redknapp revival' could be over before it has begun.

If they only pick up 1pt from those 4 games, the momentum will go and they'll be back to square 1. That's why I think they should have taken the opportunity to beat teams like Sunderland, Aston Villa and Wigan whilst they had the chance, because I can't see them getting many points just after the turn of the year.

4. Reading are the only team locked into the relegation zone

To stay up, QPR need to find two teams out of Wigan, Southampton, Sunderland, Newcastle and Aston Villa who will slump in the second half of the season that they can gain 6 points on. Newcastle are bolstering their squad in January, Sunderland thumped Reading recently and have some quality players, Southampton look more than capable of scoring goals as the third-highest goalscorers in the bottom half of the league, people always predict Wigan to go down but they always hit a great run of form in March time and Aston Villa won brilliantly at Liverpool and Benteke is looking a class player for them. I wouldn't actually be prepared to bet on either of these teams getting relegated, but to stay up, QPR would need to drag down two of them.

It's all very well saying that they're playing better under their new manager but you've got to think about the relegation battle mathematically as well. They are 5pts away from safety, they can close that gap down and it does depend on whether they can win their next few games before January, but I think it's unlikely.

5. What would relegation mean for them?

I would worry about the future of that club should they go down. They've signed a lot of proven, experienced Premiership players, but they're all on high wages. I wonder whether Tony Fernandes granted Hughes the money to sign these players on the assumption that they'd have the money from being in the Premiership to pay for them.

Playing in the Premiership brings great financial rewards for clubs from TV money and sponsorship deals, but chairmen's ambition have cost them in the past. You only have to look at what happened to Leeds and Portsmouth, who had spent too much money trying to get into Europe, that they broke their wage structure and then got relegated and didn't have the money to rebuild. I wouldn't be surprised to see that happen to QPR.

Sunday 16 December 2012

Weekend review

The changes in the dynamics of the Premiership table over this weekend haven't been spectacular, but as always, they've been interesting and have given us something to thing about in terms of how this season will end up.

The changes weren't in the title race. Although both won, it wasn't a particularly good weekend for either Manchester club. United will have wanted to try and put more space between themselves and City before the Champions League starts again, and they had a home banker against Sunderland- Man City had a trickier game, but the Citizens can't be too happy because they remain 6pts behind.

Everton's dropped points and Tottenham's win sees the North Londoners overtake the Toffees to 4th despite losing to them the week before, but with just 2pts in it, I'm nowhere near the stage of calling where the final Champions League spot will go. It'll depend a lot on whether Chelsea deteriorate under their new manager and whether Arsenal can reteriorate under their rather old manager, neither of these teams have played this weekend.

Reading play the Gunners on Monday night in what feels like a must-win game for both teams, though whatever the result I'm still going to have Reading in my predicted bottom three at the end of the season. QPR got a belated first win of the season against Fulham and Aston Villa got an impressive 3-1 win at Anfield. Defeats for Sunderland, Wigan and Newcastle means they're by no means safe, most people predicted them to be at the start of the season.

Newcastle 1-3 Man City

Dropped points for City would have seen me declare this title to be Manchester United's, so it was an important win but does nothing to rectify the damage dealt by last Sunday. Some City fans on Twitter we're saying it was their best performance of the season, but that may speak more for their season than this match- they haven't really hit their pomp yet. Toon fans would be being foolish to ignore the relegation battle, because a defeat for them next week, if other results go against them, could see them fall into the bottom three.

I said: 1-2, +1pt
Del said: 0-2, +1pt
Predicts Pro said: 1-2, +1pt

Liverpool 1-3 Aston Villa

Wow. I certainly didn't expect that. What a performance from Christian Benteke- he's looking a wonderful buy for Aston Villa now. Even when they lost 5-0 at Man City, I still didn't ever think they'd go down, although I suppose they still might. The reason I was convinced they would stay up, was because of the egalitarian management style of Paul Lambert. Shown by his handling of Darren Bent, he won't pick players just because of their reputations, and I grudgingly admire that.

I said: 2-0, +0pts
Del said: 2-1, +0pts
Predicts Pro said: 2-0, +0pts

Man Utd 3-1 Sunderland

For the most part, this was the kind of game I predicted. I thought they'd get two early goals, which they did, bring on Scholes in the second half, which they did, but Sunderland deserved to get on the scoresheet with the number of chances they created towards the end. With Man City winning, it was very important for United that they didn't slip up on Saturday and undo all the good work of last week. I'm sure they'll go into new year as top dogs now.

I said: 2-0, +1pt
Del said: 3-1, +3pts
Predicts Pro said: 3-0, +1pt

Norwich 2-1 Wigan

Incredibly, this was Norwich's 10th match unbeaten in the Premiership and 3rd win in a row. The brilliant run has taken them from being in the relegation zone in October with just 3pts, to having 25 before Christmas, and could well have 3/4 of the number of points they'll need to stay up by new year. Of course, the run will have to come to an end at some point, but I can't help but admire what Chris Hughton has done for them.

I said: 0-1, +0pts
Del said: 1-2, +0pts
Predicts Pro said: 2-1, +3pts

QPR 2-1 Fulham

I was somewhat wide of the mark with this one. I thought that eventually these draws which will have done QPR no good at the time would eventually turn into defeats, but they did prove that the spirit was still there to some extent in the dressing room. I still don't fancy QPR to stay up, but at least now they've got a chance.

I said: 0-1, +0pts
Del said: 1-0, +1pt
Predicts Pro said: 1-1, +0pts

Stoke 1-1 Everton

I've lost a great deal of respect for Marouane Fellaini for his headbutt on Shawcross. It was such a stupid thing to do and I'm glad David Moyes has taken the open approach by criticizing him, rather than doing the much used: "I didn't see it" line. Apparently Fellaini has released a public apology on Twitter, but that doesn't restore much of my respect for him. He wouldn't have apologized if he hadn't been caught. 

I said: 0-1, +0pts
Del said: 2-2, +1pt
Predicts Pro said: 0-1, +0pts

Tottenham 1-0 Swansea

Spurs needed the win to take advantage of the Toffees' dropped points, a fantastic way to bounce back from losing to them the week before. They might be 2pts clear of 5th, but I'm still not quite prepared to bet they'll be in the Champions League next season. Having to play in the Europa League on Thursday night will massively hinder their mental preparation for matches, and the 2pt gap can go in a week. I'm still not sure.

I said: 3-0, +1pt
Del said: 3-0, +1pt
Predicts Pro said: 2-0, +1pt

West Brom 0-0 West Ham

I watched quite a lot of this game and it finished a goalless draw, just as I predicted. West Brom definately deserved to win towards the end though, because in the second half, there was only one team in it. Having said that, West Ham's maybe deserve a little bit of credit for the way they managed to withstand West Brom's relentless pressure. These teams' similarly lofty league positions, considering they were tipped for relegation before the season started, meant that both managers could be more than satisfied with a point. For West Ham it was a tricky away game, and for West Brom, they simply needed to stop the rot.

I said: 0-0, +3pts
Del said: 1-1, +1pt
Predicts Pro said: 1-1, +1pt

Del
Correct results- 5
Perfect scores- 1, Man Utd 3-1 Sunderland
Points- 8

Predicts Pro
Correct results- 4
Perfect scores- 1, Norwich 2-1 Wigan
Points- 7

Myself
Correct results- 3
Perfect scores- 1, West Brom 0-0 West Ham
Points- 6

Congratulations to Del, who is this weeks' prediction winner, with 1 perfect score each and 2pts distance betweeen all three of us. Bit gutted I finished last, but still, there's always next week.

Saturday 15 December 2012

Blues 2-2 Palace: a spirited fightback


Given Crystal Palace's league position, their recent form and the fact we were 2-0 down with 25 minutes to play, I'm very happy with a point. Once again, we showed some fantastic battling qualities and I think this result goes a bit further to justify my faith in Clark, because a lot of teams in our situation would have let themselves get trodden on. As evidenced by today, the belief within the squad is still there, but we need to turn that belief into consistency. It will be tough, because the Championship is such a competitive league, but I feel like we've certainly got the capability to do so. If we played like we did in the last 25 minutes of the match for the whole match, we would have easily won, and that's been a case in a lot of games this season, which is encouraging but also frustrating in equal measure.

I didn't have too many arguments with Clark over his team selection, but the one questionable decision he made was to put Callum Reilly in central midfield ahead of Ravel Morrison. I know I wouldn't have chosen that, considering that Reilly had only just come up through the academy, but then again, I've never seen him play. If it was my decision I would have probably chosen Morgaro Gomis, but he seems completely out of favour at the moment. Once the game started though, I could immediately see why Clark chose that kid. He seemed determined to make his presence known early on with a couple of aggressive slide tackles, which occassionally resulted in a Palace free-kick, but he added that bit of tenacity in midfield in Spector's absence. I think we needed that in midfield, because whilst Bouba Diop had a good game alongside Reilly, he's well into his 30s and having a creative playmaker in the centre like Morrison might have made Diop more exposed to ground that he might not have had the legs to cover.

Reilly's resiliance and doggedness in trying to win the ball back and Diop's acquired positional sense and aerial ability helped us prevent Palace from playing through us in the centre of the park, but that didn't seem to be the key to their threats. The style of football they were playing under Holloway was counter-attacking, at a fairly high-tempo and to the flanks, particularly down the right hand side. Yannick Bolasie caused Robinson a few problems, as he was caught out of position several times and forced some stamina out of Wade Elliott, who Robinson occassionally needed to double up with him to stop Bolasie. 

Although the game was goalless for most of the first half, it did have it's entertaining moments. Jack Butland was forced to make a few decent saves, Wade Elliott showed some trickery down the left-hand side that somewhat defied his age, and Blues were briefly 3-on-2 on Palace's goal when the Londoners lost possession, but Lovenkrands's looked to have hit his shot a little earlier than he ought to have. However, it was Palace's right wing that was the source of the opening goal. A cross from Bolasie was scrambled home by their top scorer, Glenn Murray (who I tipped for a goal and am now regretting it).

What concerned me from the first half, was that whilst we looked a bit of a threat going forward, the chances we created were in short bursts. Over the course of the first half, we did struggle to link play in midfield and there were times when we couldn't string two passes together. Maybe that's the flip side of having two defensive minded midfield players, because we were missing a player who could hold onto the ball and distribute it with ease. Someone like Paul Scholes or Xavi. But not as good, obviously.

At half time, I didn't feel outwardly optimistic about our chances, but I did know that we've failed to get on the scoresheet in just 3 of our 22 league matches this season, so I had an incling that we could get back into it if we could begin to dictate play more. What didn't help my confidence though, was that we conceded 15 minutes after the restart due to poor defending of the basics, and Murray was free to tap in and grab his second of the game.

After the second goal went in, Clark made two substitutions that rescued us a point, which I think he deserves some credit for. Firstly, he brought off Wade Elliott and put on Rob Hall, and Zigic on for Burke. They were certainly questionable substitutions, as Elliott had had a good game and Burke is a fan favourite for his ability to run at fullbacks, but the brave subs paid dividends, as Zigic made an immediate impact. He got on the end of Marlon King's whipped ball in from the right and looped it past Speroni, after what seemed like 10 seconds of him being on the pitch. This gave us a lift.

A ten minutes later, Papa Bouba Diop typified the aerial presence he had provided the team with all afternoon by powering home a header from Rob Hall, the other substitute's corner to the delight of our fans. However, both sets of supporters were to endure a nervy ending to the game, as either side could have won it. Marlon King uncharacteristically skewed a shot over the bar, when a bouncing ball came to him and he had little time to control it, and Kagisho Dikgacoi headed just wide in injury time.

If Marlon or Dikgacoi had found the net in the closing stages, then I believe it would have been rather cruel on their opposition, not just in terms of the pain of losing late on, but also in balance of play. A draw was probably a fair reflection on how we grew into the game in the second half and produced a very spirited performance, but had we won I think it would have made both of our basic defensive mistakes irrelevant. We'll certainly be the happier fans, but in the end a draw was about right.

Player ratings:

Butland- 7, made some good saves and was voted man of the match by fans. I wouldn't have rated him that highly, but he had a decent game.

Caddis- 6, not as noticeable as against Wolves but did his job when called upon.
Caldwell- 5, seemed to lack pace and Palace exploited this at time with their counter-attacks.
Davies- 6, probably our best defender and looked fairly solid, but 2 sloppy team goals conceded means I couldn't give him more than 6.
Robinson- 5, made the odd good challenge but often because he was out of position in the first place. Lacked pace.

Diop- 7, provided a physical presence in the team, strong in the air and scored a bullet header, which proved crucial.
Reilly- 7, showed a lot of fight to win the ball back and I often saw him as the man in space to pass to, when defence wanted to hoof it up. I was impressed.
Burke- 5, I didn't see much of him, I feel Clark is yet to get the best out of him.
Elliott- 7, good work rate for 34-year-old. Tracked back a lot but also showed good creativity and skill on the ball, set up Lovenkrands for his shot.

King- 5, missed his chance towards the end, wasn't instrumental. Held the ball up well at times, that was about it.
Lovenkrands- 5, wasn't clinical enough with his one chance. Only had one chance, but then should his movement have been better? 

Subs:
Zigic- 8, my man of the match. Changed the game after coming on, not just in his goal, but he won all the flick-ons and knock-downs which is exactly
what you want from your target man. With him on the pitch, we created a number of decent shooting opportunities of his making.
Hall- 7, got the assist for Diop and injected us with some pace.
Hancox- 6, I didn't notice him at all once he came on, but maybe that's good for a defender! As an academy graduate, will be generous and say a 6.

Friday 14 December 2012

My Premiership predictions- 14/12/12

Well, well. It's nearly Christmas again. I seriously don't know what's happening to this year. I remember being a child and the years always took so long. A year usually felt like about a decade, whereas now it's no time at all. I'm 20, and I only left school like 10 minutes ago!

Anyway, after the drama of the Manchester derby, it looks to be United's title to lose now and they'll be going into the new year top of the table baring a sensational recovery of points from City. The Citizens will look to bounce back from that late setback when they go to struggling Newcastle, but still United may fancy themselves to actually extend their lead when they play their north-east opponents, Sunderland at home. Chelsea's involvement in the Club World Cup this weekend means it's a day off for Southampton.

Down at the bottom, QPR are still searching for their first win of the season and will attempt to get it against Fulham, Reading are searching for their second of the season and need to get to get it soon with a 6 point gap between themselves and safety, but play host to under-pressure-Wenger's Arsenal. Norwich look to hold onto their unbeaten run against Wigan, whilst Villa travel to Anfield against Rodger's side who have been showing strong signs of improvement in recent games. 

Everton attempt to keep hold of 4th place but will have to win at clean sheet merchants Stoke, but Tottenham will stay right on their tails if they beat Swansea, and two of the overachievers of the season so far go against each other; West Brom play West Ham.

Joining me this week as always is Del, and Predictions Pro, who you can follow on twitter by following the link. Good luck to you both.


Newcastle vs. Man City

The Manchester derby will have been a big blow for the Citizens. Having come so close to even claiming a point, it'll take a bit of character from them to get back into this title race. I've favoured United for top spot from the start - even when Chelsea were top for a while - because I don't rate Mancini. His tactical nous is not up to scratch in my opinion, and I think he's the man they need to change if they want to succeed in Europe, but as long as Ferguson is in charge at United, I'm struggling to see them win the league again in the next few years.

Newcastle have lost 4 of their last 5 games and they clearly aren't coping at all with playing in the Europa League- as Thursday night proved. The worrying thing for them will be that they're through to the last 32 in February. I probably don't think they will go down if the board understands the need for squad investment in January, but they're actually only 2pts off the relegation zone. I'd be a bit worried if I was a Newcastle fan.

On balance, I think City will have just enough to bounce back from the disappointment against United by edging this. I don't see a route back into the title race for them though. 1-2.

Del says: 0-2
Predicts Pro says: 1-2

Liverpool vs. Aston Villa

I've been looking at the latest possession statistics for Liverpool and it tells you something. Liverpool have had an average of 60% of the ball in their last 3 games, all of which they've won, and I wouldn't be surprised to see that continue today. Villa's gameplan lately has been very much a case of getting the ball direct to Benteke in the air, at times lumping it up, due to their lack of quality in midfield. That leads me to think Liverpool will have more than 60% in this match- especially if they can keep the Belgian quiet.

I'm starting to think now, that the Rodgers revolution of Liverpool is in full flow. They've won their last 3 games in all competitions, and to win at West Ham last week was a very good achievement, especially having played in Italy on Thursday night. I did think that the Hammers, such a hardworking team they are, they'd grind Liverpool down.

Villa got a point against Stoke that can be considered little more than satisfactory given their position in the table. Assuming QPR and Reading are locked down there, it could now be a four-way battle between themselves, Wigan, Sunderland and Southampton to avoid that final relegation place. I think they'll beat the drop, but they've caught Liverpool at the wrong time, so 2-0.

Del says: 2-1
Predicts Pro says: 2-0

Man Utd vs. Sunderland

I can't see anything more or less than a routine win for Manchester United here. Sunderland have got a respectable defensive record and will be boosted by their 3-0 win over Reading in midweek so I'm not sure if it'll be a walkover for Ferguson's side, but I would expect them to control the game.

Contrary to the title race, my opinion on who will go down with Reading and QPR changes frequently. Before their game against Reading, I thought Sunderland would go down because they don't score enough, but to not just win that match but to win it by getting on the scoresheet 3 times will be a massive confidence booster. The only problem for them is that result maybe came at the wrong time in terms of momentum, because they've still got to play Man City and Tottenham  after this, so they're by no means out of the waters yet.

Ferguson hasn't got any midweek Champions League games to plan for, or worries in terms player fitness after one, so he can put out any team he likes without hesitation. I get the impression this will be the kind of game where they get a couple of goals in the first half, bring on Paul Scholes in the second, keep the ball and just see the game out. 2-0 seems about right.

Del says: 3-1
Predicts Pro says: 3-0

Norwich vs. Wigan

I'm going to go with my gut instinct on this one and say Wigan can record an away win, because  Norwich's 10 game unbeaten run in the Premiership simply can't go on forever, however good a manager Hughton is. Plus, Wigan have picked up just 1 point from their last 3 games, which means... yep, that's right, they're going to win this.

I'm not sure what kind of impact losing 4-1 to Villa in the cup on Tuesday will have on the Norwich team. Hughton opted to field a full-strength side which, although I wouldn't have done it personally, it was a defendable decision, because the team would still have 4 days rest and also they're well above the relegation zone. I do wonder if it'll have a negative affect on the team going into this one though. 

Wigan need the points considerably more. They only managed a draw at home to bottom-of-the-table QPR last week, but as I've talked about before, they've got that enviable ability to turn on the style when they've just lost a game or had a disappointing result. I think that'll serve them well in the relegation battle and this situation will be no different. 0-1.

Del says: 1-2
Predicts Pro says: 2-1

QPR vs. Fulham

Opportunities missed for QPR. They had the perfect chance to get off to the good start they needed under Harry Redknapp by beating either of three teams potentially involved in a relegation scrap - Sunderland, Aston Villa and Wigan - ideally 2 of them. They haven't won any of those games, they haven't lost any either which suggests that they're not giving up without a fight, but I just don't think draws are enough against those kind of teams, considering the situation they're in.

Fulham got the win they wanted over Newcastle last week and I'd expect that to ease a any of the Cottagers' mild relegation fears, after going 7 games without a win beforehand. I personally never thought they'd go down in the first place, and I would actually back them to pick up a win here.

I feel like QPR won't continue to draw matches and stay bottom, very few teams have done that. At some point, things will change and we'll know whether there's a chance of them staying up. There might be the unlikely hope of a revival, but they need to get some confidence from somewhere that they can win football matches, like Southampton have had since the start. Otherwise, my calculation is that these draws will begin to seep into defeats and they'll be bottom for the rest of the season, so 0-1.

Del says: 1-0
Predicts Pro says: 1-1

Stoke vs. Everton

Two of arguably the hardest-working teams in the Premiership do battle on Saturday, so I'm predicting a tight one with chances few and far between. It's probably worth remembering that Stoke have conceded just 2 goals from 7 home games this season. You could argue that that doesn't quite tell the full story of their defensive record, as they've conceded 12 overall, but if anything the contrast highlights how tough to play against they are at home, which will be important in this match.

Despite their solid defence, I wouldn't expect them to have it all their own way against Everton, who got such a crucial win against Tottenham last week to stay 4th. Just looking at the way Jelavic celebrated when he scored the winning goal so clinically, high-fiving all his teammates coming off the bench and giving Moyes a hug, it epitomised the team spirit they have at that club.

For that reason, I'm going to back Everton to come away from Stoke with all the points in a very close game, as Jelavic only seems to need one chance in a game to score at the moment. Stoke will have no intentions of making it easy for them though, and will run the Toffees right to the wire. 0-1.

Del says: 2-2
Predicts Pro says: 0-1

Tottenham vs. Swansea

What a strange few days it's been for Swansea. Firstly they win 2-0 at the Emirates, then they conceded 4 goals at home to Norwich and then they reach the semi-finals of the League Cup for the first time in their history! However a midweek game, especially Laudrup having fielded a full-strength team, means Swansea won't be at their freshest. The best way for them to play this is to make sure they have plenty of the ball at White Hart Lane, or else hope like hell that most of Spurs's chances don't fall to Jermain Defoe.

The ex-Hammer has 13 goals to his name so far, in all competitions, which wouldn't necessarily be too bad a return at the end of the season, and we're not even half-way through! I'll admit I wasn't sure about the idea of a penalty-box-predator, like Defoe is, playing up front on his own. I'd normally say he needs a target man alongside him, someone to work the flanks, do all the donkey work and win the flick-ons and knock-downs for Defoe to finish- will he get enough support on his own? The answer being an emphatic yes. The creativity of Dempsey has had Modric long forgotten and Lennon and Bale offer great support running in from the wing, though Bale is out for this one.

They haven't had a European game to worry about this week, so I'll go for a comfortable Spurs win. More often than not Defoe scores, so I'll go with a pretty safe bet and back him to grab himself another goal or two, and lead Tottenham to a 3-0 win.

Del says: 3-0
Predicts Pro says: 2-0

West Brom vs. West Ham

I think it's important for West Brom that they can even things out a bit after losing 3 matches on the trot. It won't help the team's cycle of confidence by making it 4 or 5 defeats and they just need to draw a couple now to stay fully on target for a midtable finish. After this game, they've got Norwich and QPR so I strongly doubt that they'll continue a losing run into the new year. 

West Ham have had a tricky run of games lately and with Everton and Arsenal still to come, they'll only really get easier once they're into the new year. It's their home form that they'll rely on mostly, having scored just 5 goals away from home all season, but I think they can come away from this game with a point which both teams will accept. 0-0.

Del says: 1-1
Predicts Pro says: 1-1

Reading vs. Arsenal

I would be surprised if this game turns out to be a repeat of the 5-7 in the Capital One Cup earlier this season. Arsenal crashed out of that competition this week in a shock defeat on penalties to Bradford and more than a few Gunners fans want to see the back of Wenger.

My own opinion is that he's done a great job and I'm not judging him too much on a few bad results, keeping Arsenal in the top four so consistently is a great achievement. However, if he does go, I sincerely hope he gets the respect he deserves simply for what he's done for the club. Maybe they do need a new manager to take the club to the next level in the 'post-Emirates era', but Arsenal fans should remember that there's no guarentee they'll immediately start to win  the title once Wenger goes. If a high-spending manager comes in and the buys don't do the business, the club could start to go downhill, I think their best chance is by keeping their faith in Wenger.

I'm practically at the stage of pronouncing Reading down. I don't think they can defend leads well enough and they followed up their first win of the season over Everton a few weeks ago with a series of defeats. I'm predicting this will be another one as Arsenal come out fighting after the embarrassing defeat to Bradford, 1-3.

Del says: 1-3
Predicts Pro: 1-2