Monday 28 January 2013

Idealists vs. Pragmatists: a look at managerial styles

One of the things I've noticed following football, is that most successful managers tend to fall into two broad categories of managerial styles, idealists and pragmatists. Now, I'm not saying here that all coaches are either one type or the other, because of course there are many sub-categories within these two types. 

However, I do feel that these two groups are transparent enough to explore further, and perhaps to compare the successes of both types. I'll do this by looking at their ability in the transfer market, how effectively they handle the media, the brand of football they get their team playing, how well they organise their teams defensively and success in terms of trophies and league positions.

The Idealists

Firstly, there are the idealists. These managers tend to place as much emphasis on encouraging their team to get accustomed to playing their preferred style of football, as ensuring that the team gets the required results. They are often prepared to give youth a chance, always have their eye on the next hidden gem who they can sign young for a snip price or develop through the academy. People of ambition, when they are appointed manager of a club, their targets are generally geared more towards long-term greatness, than basic short-term success.

Arsene Wenger


Arsene Wenger is the perfect example of this and very much characterizes the idealist manager within modern football. Stubborn in his own approach, he's succeeded just enough for the majority of Arsenal fans to back him, yet there are elements within his idealist nature that  are arguably preventing Arsenal from glory.

Transfer judgement: I would say this depends on whether the lack of spending is the board's decision due to the building of the Emirates, or Wenger's stubbornness in principle, or indeed a combination of both. Wenger is notorious for his desire to sign players young and cheap, rather than splashing the cash on proven stars, but to his credit the majority of players he's signed for rarely more than £5 million have flourished at Arsenal in the long-term. I for one admire that, so I'd give him 8/10.

Style of football: at times Arsenal have been very enjoyable to watch. If I'm separating the style of football category from end results, Arsenal have few weaknesses. However, this 'perfect football' ideology is certainly flawed to some extent. Barcelona - who Wenger appears to be trying to emulate with Arsenal's style of football - can get away with playing this way because they have incredible players, but in a lot of matches if they don't get their goal early, Arsenal often lack that plan B. 8/10

Organisation: dreadful. This is a key piece of the arguments made by Wenger's critics, because Arsenal haven't won a trophy since Vieira left in 2005 and that's no coincidence in my book. Wenger had tried to economize by signing Song and Flamini to replace him on cheap deals, who had been playing okay, but simply not at Vieira's standards. Arsenal badly need someone at the back or an anchor man, who is a leader and an organiser, Wenger has seemingly ignored this. 2/10

Motivating & media-handling: he has a habit of saying: "I didn't see the incident" in post-match press conferences when an Arsenal player has cheated. Like it or not, this seems to have been an effective, 'get off scott free' technique, because he then doesn't need to address the case and people forget about it. That may have an indirect influence on refeering decisions for the long-term in Arsenal's favour, because if Wenger said: "I know Cazorla would never dive", people would see the replay later and know Wenger had lied. If he said: "yes, he dived", people, including referees, would always remember it. I hate this media-handling technique that Wenger often employs, but it is unquestionably an effective one. 7/10

Results & success: well, what do you define as success? In my opinion, playing in the Champions League every season since 1996 is good, and I know I'd prefer that to winning one of the domestic cups. A lot of people think that 7 years without a trophy isn't good enough, I'm not sure I agree, but it is a factor that prevents him from gaining a higher score. Rightly or wrongly, trophies are what a manager is judged on 5/10

Overall: I don't believe that many managers could have done what Wenger has for Arsenal. Having taken them through the expensive building of the Emirates on cheap, youth signings, he's kept Arsenal in the top four every season. Not having won a trophy in 7 years unjustly tarnishes this in my opinion, but one can't help but think that it wouldn't be the case if Wenger was prepared to compromise his philosophy of how football should be played, by simply doing what it takes to win matches. 7/10

Pep Guardiola


Although I reckon he's the best man to replace Ferguson at Man United, (once he's had a few years now with Bayern Munich) I'm also of the opinion that Pep is an ounce overrated as a manager. Though he won 3 La Liga titles and 2 Champions Leagues in 4 years in charge of Barca and the change in tactics admittedly played a part in that, he also did so with extraordinary players and he quit after 4 seasons. I'm not trying to discredit him for what he's done, yet I don't believe Barca's success had as much to do with him as people think. The recent successes of Tito Vilanova as his replacement supports that argument.

Transfer judgement: virtually irrelevant- the vast majority of Barcelona's players had come through the youth system. The expensive signing of Ibrahimovic didn't work out in the long-term due to injuries, but Pep took the brave decisions to get rid of stars like Ronaldinho, Eto'o and Deco which created the clean slate for Messi to take centre stage. 5/10

Style of football: simply wonderful, and Vilanova has made a good decision to change little of what Pep has done tactically. People who think Barcelona are boring have clearly never had a Birmingham City season ticket- they can close teams down so quickly to make them panic and lose the ball which is partly what makes Barca so effective, but the touch, vision and passing ability some of their players have on offer, combined with their movement, is a joy to watch. The one minor flaw in this system (which is probably worth the cost) is that like with Arsenal, when teams shut up shot against them like Inter and Chelsea did in previous Champions League semi-finals, they struggle. At times, Barca can lack the ability to change the system and go direct to give the opposition defence something different to think about, but it's a very small disadvantage given the bigger picture. 9/10

Organisation: rarely necessary. Barca have always had so much possession and an ability to score 3 or 4 goals in a game, that it doesn't really matter if they let in the odd one. Their success isn't notoriously based on defensive organisation, but with the likes of Messi and Iniesta in their team, I don't think Pep will have minded too much. 5/10

Motivating & media-handling: he rarely looks to use the media to gain an advantage. He has a 'turn the other cheek' mentality, and is often very composed. It's not his style to play mind-games, which, in a way is a mind-game in itself. He believes so much in the quality of his team, that he doesn't see it as a necessary measure, and that air of confidence could indirectly have an impact on the opposition's mindset. 6/10 

Results & success: it stands to be seen.  3 La Liga titles and 2 Champions Leagues in 4 seasons is fantastic, and I'm surprised Pep decided to leave which is perhaps the only thing to mark him down on. He had the opportunity to create a footballing dynasty with Barcelona. 8/10

Overall: a fantastic tactician, though the three things that I'm going to mark Pep down on here are: he had the luxury of working with a fantastic generation of talent, he's still a young manager without success over a prelonged period of time yet, and he quit at Barca. It's a decision that you can respect though, and I'd fancy him to win the Champions League with Bayern Munich. 8/10

Andre Villas-Boas


I believe Andre Villas-Boas has the potential to become a good Champions League manager, perhaps even with Tottenham Hotspur. I think he's learnt from his failure at Chelsea, when he tried to alter their squad and style of football too radically, plus he has the experience of working with Jose Mourinho, which I would expect to help him succeed as a manager in future.

Transfer judgement: mixed. You'd have to say that the signings of James Rodriguez (£5 mil) and Joao Moutinho (£10 mil) were good buys for Porto, especially when you think that both are considered to be worth £20 mil each now. Juan Mata has been brilliant for Chelsea, but most of the signings out of his £80 million war chest at the West London club are young and yet to prove their worth. £18-odd million was a lot to pay for youngster Lukaku, and Raul Meireles probably has hardly been inspirational before his transfer away. On balance, I would say that his transfer nous hasn't been quite good enough, given that his main managerial strengths supposedly lie in tactical knowledge more than motivating. 5/10

Style of football: likes to encourage creative, passing football, yet his choice of formations have changed since he joined Tottenham. With Porto, he played Falcao as the central striker, who was flanked by Varela and Hulk providing width. At Chelsea, he use a similar tactic with Drogba as the front man. However, at Tottenham he's noticed the change in trends in football and incoporated a very modern 4-2-3-1 formation, with which the likes of Man City, Dortmund and Real Madrid have all been successful. It looks to be a tactic which the Spurs team have taken some time to adjust to, but one that promises much for the future. 8/10

Organisation: hasn't managed to transfer his ability to organise teams from Portuguese football to England. He established a formidable defence in his one season at Porto, when his side conceded just 16 goals in 30 games- the best defensive record for a team in that league for 3 seasons. However, in his brief spell as Chelsea manager, they conceded an average of 1.2 goals per game, that's with the likes of Cole and Terry fit. Since he joined Spurs, their defensive record has become the 3rd worst of all the teams in the top half of the table, with 28 goals conceded in 23 games. 4/10

Motivating & Media-handling: this is an area where he's fallen down quite a bit. A few years ago, he formed the perfect management partnership with Mourinho at Porto, Chelsea and Internazionale. It worked because AVB was the shy tactical genius, who would scout and analyse the tactics and strengths/weaknesses of the opposition, Mourinho was the charismatic motivator, who could deal with the press and instantly command the respect of his team. The perfect combo. However, since AVB has decided to go into management alone, his inexperience has cost him in press conferences and he failed to gain the players' support at Chelsea, as Mourinho was able to. 3/10

Results & Success: I think you'd have to give him a reasonably generous score here. He kept Academica up  easily in his first job in club management, then won the treble with Porto in his only season there. I would calculate that he's on his way to winning a few trophies with Tottenham, so the only real criticism you can hand him is his short and unfruitful spell with Chelsea, given the financial backing he had. He perhaps tried to change that club over in terms of personnel and style of football too radically, yet you can also argue that he needed much more patience from Abramovich for the transition to ever work. 7/10

Overall: I do have a soft spot for AVB, and he's still a young manager at 35. I think he'll succeed in  future, particularly if he can improve his media-handling skills, because he's a very good tactician. However, the fact that he's young means that he hasn't yet got a well developed enough managerial CV to rate him too highly. 6/10

Jurgen Klopp


I don't think you can overestimate what Klopp has done at Borussia Dortmund. He took them from the outskirts of relegation and increasing debt in 2008 to winning back-to-back Bundesliga titles, and thriving in the Champions League this season. In my opinion, he's the most underrated manager in the world, and certainly one of the best.

Transfer judgement: because of the clubs debt, which originated from Dortmund trying to compete financially with Europe's finest, Klopp was forced to change their splash-the-cash approach and attempt to find hidden gems, which he did very well. Granted lot of players in Dortmund's Bundesliga winning team, such as Schmelzer and Gotze came through the academy, but Klopp managed to bring in centre-back pairing Hummels and Subotic for nominal fees. He signed Shinji Kagawa for £200k before making a £24-million profit on him through Manchester United, and a connection in Poland helped him find talented trio Piszczek, Lewandowski and Blaszczykowski. Don't worry, I've turned spellchecker off whilst writing this. 8/10

Style of football: youthful mobility has been the basis of this Dortmund team. Klopp seems to love working with younger players, so the tactic he's employed has been to try and run the opponents into the ground with a frenetic energy. Though this has proved to be a very effective style of play, one can't help but think this has more to do with the age of players - an average age of 22 - due to the club's use of the academy, than necessarily a plan of Klopp's. It's an additional benefit of having a young team. 6/10

Organisation: fairly impressive. The 2010-11 Dortmund side held the best defensive record of any Bundesliga team in previous 3 years at the time, which is an impressive feat given the apparent lack of experience. Mats Hummels has been instrumental defensively, and recently signed a new contract citing a repayment of Klopp's faith in him as the reason behind it. His long-term partnership with Neven Subotic will prove crucial in any further success Dortmund can have. 7/10

Motivation & Media-handling: in translated videos of him in press conferences I've seen, Klopp has taken a casual and relaxed approach. He's displayed an open body language and often has a smile on his face, which emits a lot of confidence. This mentality may have had a positive impact on Dortmund's performances in the big games, because in their last 5 matches against rivals Bayern Munich, they've won 4 and drawn 1. 7/10

Results & Success: indisputable. I don't think Klopp could have done any more for Dortmund. To take them from the brink of relegation, and possibly administration to Bundesliga winners twice, and once with a highest ever points tally, is sensational. Add to that, he's overseen them demolish Bayern Munich 5-2 in the German cup final to win the double one year and many are tipping Dortmund to go far in the knockout phases of the Champions League this season. 10/10

Overall: people talk about the likes of Guardiola and Mourinho as the best managers in the world, but when they arrived at their clubs they inherited a squad jam-packed with talent and in Mourinho's case, great financial support. However, that was nothing like the case when Klopp took over at Dortmund yet he's achieved similar amounts of success- I find it surprising that he's not being talked about in the same bracket. 9/10

The Pragmatists


The pragmatists always ingrain a 'win-at-all-costs' mentality into their teams, and are prepared to do whatever is necessary to achieve short-term success. Though they impose a system often designed to get the best out of their top players, their main strengths lie in their charisma and motivational skills. In press conferences, each of the following managers have their unique way of instantly capturing everyone's attention, and this aura seems to help them gain the respect of their players. Interestingly though, each of the managers have been generally known to spend a couple of years at a club before moving on for their next challenge, rather than laying down a foundation stone at their current club.

Jose Mourinho


I've developed a great disdain for his childish touchline antics, but there's certainly no arguing with 'the special one's track record. The number of trophies he's won in 4 different countries clearly proves that he's amongst the best managers in the world.

Transfer judgement: particularly when managing Chelsea and Real Madrid, he's had a bottomless pit of money at his disposal, with which you can't help but think that most managers would do a good job. It would be unwise therefore to rate his transfer judgement skills too highly, but signing Didier Drogba at Chelsea and Sami Khedira at Madrid were good pieces of business. He got the best out of his lavish transfer funds, but had he not done so, he would arguably have been heavily criticized. 6/10

Style of football: he's varied his standard formation choice at each club he's managed at to suit the players at his disposal, which highlights his pragmatist mentality. However, like Andre Villas-Boas, he's spotted the rise of the 4-2-3-1 formation in the modern game and has implemented that at Madrid. He's got the galacticos playing direct, high-tempo football in which Ronaldo plays a key role drifting inside from the left wing. 6/10

Organisation: he established a good defensive record with Porto and in his first season in charge of Chelsea, they conceded just 15 Premiership goals- that's half the number they had let in the season before under Claudio Ranieri. However, his sides's scoring records since then suggest that he has put more emphasis on attack after he joined Inter. Madrid have been struggling at the back this season.7/10

Motivating & Media-handling: outstanding. Alex Ferguson is normally regarded as the master of mind-games, but not whilst Jose was in England, because United only beat Chelsea once in ten matches whilst Mourinho was manager. I've read 'Mourinho- anatomy of a winner' by Patrick Barclay, and the Portuguese has a great skill for motivating his team. In his last match in charge of Benfica, he lied to his team that the opposition were so confident of a win that they had neglected preparation for the match and had been watching tennis all week, when in fact Mourinho only saw the opposition at the tennis once. He spun the tale to his advantage to motivate his side, later confessing to doing so, having won that match 3-0. However, with him being so notoriously cunning in his use of them, one wonders for how long these mind-game tricks will work for Mourinho before people begin to mistrust him. Will they continue to work for him in the long-term? 9/10

Results & Success: if you base success on ability to succeed at a range of different clubs, in different countries (rather than long-term success at one club), then Mourinho is the best manager in the world. No other manager compares on that score. He's won 15 different trophies including the Champions League twice in 10 years since he became manager of Porto. 10/10

Overall: there is no doubting what Mourinho has achieved, yet I would question whether he  will succeed in future. Everything he's done so far has all been geared towards short-term success with the club he's at. However, a growing feeling may eventually develop that he's not going to settle down at one club, and this could be unsettling for his players. Furthermore, his mind-games and motivating tactics have worked a treat for him as far, but surely eventually people will wisen up to them and begin to take his words with a pinch of salt? Whether he will continue to win things whilst hopping between clubs in future is up for debate, but there's certainly no denying what he's achieved thus far. 9/10

Jupp Heynckes


Transfer judgement: the €22 million signing of Manuel Neuer from Schalke 04 has proved to be a great piece of business. Neuer is now regarded by many as the best goalkeeper in the world, he has made some terrific saves and has contributed to Bayern's great defensive record. However, Heynckes will never be reknowned for his ability in the transfer market as few of his signings, Neuer aside, have proved to be stars- he's been more one to develop and work with the players he already has at his disposal. 5/10

Style of football: in a similar way to Mourinho, he's changed the type of tactics that he's implementing to suit his players. He used a 4-5-1 with attacking wingers, convertible to a 4-3-3, at Bayer Leverkusen but changed to the popular 4-2-3-1 when he went to Munich. He's unlikely to come to a club with a new system, a new philosophy in mind. 4/10

Organisation: I've calculated the average defensive record of all of the teams who have played under Heynckes. His sides, put together, have conceded an average of 1.2 goals per game. Considering that he's managed some of the top clubs, including three stints at Bayern Munich, I did expect that record to be better, but it's also noticeable how his defensive record has gradually improved throughout his career. Although his Borussia Monchengladbach side finished bottom in 2007, they also held the best defensive record of a team to be relegated in 11 years. Bayern Munich had the best 'goals against' record in the Bundesliga last season and more impressively this year, they've conceded just 7 goals from 19 games, which is the best defensive record in Europe. 7/10

Motivating & media-handling: a fairly shy character in the face of the media, it's been rare for Heynckes to speak out in public and he seems to interact with his team internally. However, by all accounts he's a strict man manager, and has been dubbed 'osram' (a German lighting manufacturer) by the media, in reference to his reddening face when agitated! 5/10

Results & Success: mixed. With an 11 point lead with Bayern now at the top, we can bet that Heynckes is onto his third Bundesliga title, but could he have won more? In his 33 year managerial career with 13 spells as a manager, he has his success with Bayern and winning the Champions League with Real Madrid to show for it (though he was sacked from Madrid after doing so). Tarnishing these successes though, are brief and unfruitful stints for a year or so at Bilbao, Frankfurt, Tenerife, Benfica, Bilbao again and Monchengladbach. 5/10

Overall: You have to look at his managerial career as a whole and say that although it's had it's moments, Heynckes hasn't been able to sustain his successes in the longer term. He's a journeyman manager who can come into a club and immediately gain the respect of the players. However, like Mourinho he could be described as a 'quick fix', who prioritizes immediate results over attempting to leave a legacy with a club. 6/10

Sam Allardyce


You may wonder why I've decided to include Sam Allardyce in amongst the Guardiolas and the Mourinhos of the world. Depending on how you rate them, I think Allardyce is within the top 10 managers in England. If you have him as your manager, you're in a great position to stabilize yourself as a Premier League club, because Allardyce is yet to relegate a team in a full season as a manager.


Transfer judgement: quite impressive, particularly at Bolton. Most would describe Allardyce as the classic wheeler and dealer, spending just £2.7 million on transfers per season in his 8 years at Bolton, and signing no fewer than 40 players there on a free transfer. Stelios, Kevin Davies, Okocha and Ivan Campo, who became key players for the club, were all signed for no transfer fee. However, a lot of his buys at Bolton were more as a result of a 'smash and grab' mentality than long-term planning. He averaged 9 signings per season at the north-west club, many of which came and went. Aside from the transfers he made at Bolton, the signing of Kevin Nolan for West Ham in the Championship, who at the time was captain of Premiership Newcastle, was a massive statement of intent and helped West Ham to promotion in 2012. 7/10

Style of football: direct, often route-one football. At Bolton, the plan was to hoof the ball high for Kevin Davies to spearhead attacking moves and have the likes of Okocha or Nolan pick up his flick-ons and knock-downs. Not always the prettiest or most enjoyable to watch, but the effect was there. At West Ham, the gameplan has been similar, but with a little more emphasis on getting the ball to the flanks to provide width- but he still uses a target man with Carlton Cole in the Kevin Davies role. 2/10

Organisation: Allardyce has managed very physical teams in West Ham and Bolton, which has made them hard to beat, especially at home. The reason Arsenal had a poor record at the Reebok whilst he was manager there, was perhaps that the young guns couldn't find the strength to break them down, and that's been the case with a lot of teams. He has a solid defensive record behind him. 8/10

Motivating & media-handling: quite open. The fact that he's never managed a big club perhaps distances him somewhat from the mind-games that go on at the top. In exclusive interviews I've read that have involved him, he's highlighted the importance of "treating people how you'd like to be treated" and building personal relationships with his staff. It may be this that  have made Bolton and West Ham such hardworking teams. 6/10

Results & Success: after a very successful season managing in Ireland, Allardyce had an unlucky few years. He did a great job as caretaker manager of Preston, keeping them up and definately deserved to get the job full-time, he was then very unfairly sacked by Blackpool, after failing to attain promotion with them by a point and arrived at Notts County too late to save them from relegation. However, he got them promoted back at the first time of asking with a 19 point gap and was to have 8 successful years, mainly in the Premiership, with Bolton. The one damp spot on his CV is his disappointing stint at Newcastle, but looks to be in the process of stabilizing West Ham in the Premiership as he did with Bolton. 7/10

Overall: you can't quite call Allardyce a great manager because he hasn't, and probably will never manage a top club. However, wherever he goes he always seems to create very hardworking teams that look motivated to play for him, and he always makes his teams hard to beat which is a crucial part of helping clubs stay in the Premier League. 6/10


Fabio Capello


An orthodox disciplinarian, Capello has a track record not dissimilar to Mourinho and Heynckes. In his 26 year post-playing career, he's filled 13 different managerial roles, spending an average of 2 years in each and is currently manager of Russia.


Transfer judgement: Capello can be credited for the signing of Roberto Carlos in his first spell at Real Madrid, but he's made few high-profile signings for clubs other than that. He looks to have operated a policy of bringing in the best young players, finding Walter Samuel at Roma and spotting the talent in Gonzalo Higuan and Marcelo, who are now shining at Real Madrid. 6/10

Style of football: a rigid 4-4-2 formation has been his favourite system throughout his managerial career. However, this pragmatic approach wasn't approved of by club president Ramon Calderon, who wanted a continuation of the tradition of beautiful football at Madrid. Because of this, and despite him winning Madrid their first La Liga title in 4 years, Capello was sacked. 3/10

Organisation: before going into management, Capello wrote a research article called: 'the zonal marking system', and he's always favoured this. He's led England to 16 clean sheets from 42 games and his Milan team conceded an average of 0.6 goals per game. He's fantastic at turning his teams into ones that know how to grind out results. 9/10

Motivating & media-handling: he has a certain aura about him. Whenever he walks into a press conference room he has that ability to make everyone sit up and take notice of him, which I'm sure is a skill he transfers into the dressing room. He has been known to also take a strict and unforgiving approach even to his best players, which is a rare policy. He's never been afraid to stamp his authority on his team. 8/10

Results & Success: he's succeeded almost everywhere he's been. 5 Serie A titles in 6 years at Milan is some feat, he then took Roma to a Serie A title which was to be the third in their history, and a title at Juventus, though this was later stripped off them due to the Calciopoli scandal. Very unfairly sacked at Real Madrid, but his main career disappointment has been England's poor performance at the 2010 World Cup. 9/10

Overall: his CV proves that his disciplinarian approach and rididly defensive strategy, both of which have been criticized, can translate into success. In my opinion England are years of youth development programmes away from getting anywhere near the World Cup final, and the disappointment of the world cup cannot rest with Capello. I rate the Italian as one of the best managers in the world. 8/10

Conclusion

So, which of these types of managers bear the most success?

Idealists
Wenger: 7/10
Guardiola: 8/10
AVB: 6/10
Klopp: 9/10

Apart from Wenger, none of the idealists go into press conferences with too much of an agenda. Guardiola and Klopp often take a fairly laid-back approach, which seems to have an unexpectedly positive impact, because it emitts a certain confidence in their team.

Neither Klopp, Guardiola or Wenger have spent much money, but they've been able to make up for the lack of funding by being at their respective clubs for several years and creating a stable environment for the players.

Each of these idealists have a philosophy for attractive, passing football. Particularly in Arsene Wenger's case, this importance seems to come even before getting the results. All of these managers have a lot of faith in youth, which has paid off for Guardiola and Klopp due to the fantastic youth academies at Barca and Dortmund. However, AVB's dramatic overhaul of young players at Chelsea worked against him and Wenger has sometimes failed to balance the talent of Arsenal's academy graduates with enough experience.

Average success rating: 7.5

Pragmatists:
Mourinho: 9/10
Heynckes: 6/10
Allardyce: 6/10
Capello: 8/10

All of these managers, maybe Allardyce to a lesser extent, have developed a habit of spending a couple of years at a club winning trophies, before moving onto their next job. As far, they've all been successful, yet I worry in this climate of rich, young, impatient chairmen, that these 'quick fix' managers will become more popular. I would actually question whether the likes of Mourinho will continue to be successful if he continues to spend rarely longer than 2 or 3 years at a club, because eventually players will question whether he'll be there for the long-term, and that may become unsettling.

I did expect this 'pragmatist' breed of managers to be heavy-spenders, but it's only Mourinho has had massive financial backing. Capello has favoured signing players young and cheap and Allardyce has had to work with an average transfer budget of under £3 million a year. Heynckes too hasn't exactly employed a splash-the-cash policy in the transfer market.

Average success rating: 7.25

Comparing the two, I've come to the conclusion that the idealist managers have been the more successful. This is mainly because of their ability to make up for a lack of funding, by creating a comfortable, stable environment for the players and developing cheap talent.

However, I believe it's possible to merge the best of these two styles, and Alex Ferguson is proof of this. He's an exception to my idealist/pragmatist categories, because he doesn't fit into either entirely. He's spent 25 years at Old Trafford, trusts his young players and gets his teams playing exciting football which suggests he has a few characteristics of the idealist.

On the other hand, he has a presence in press conferences with his mind-games, he has been known to deal with his players in a strict way and ingrains a 'win-at-all-costs' mentality into his team. So, in my next article, I'm going to talk about how Alex Ferguson blurs the lines between idealism and pragmatism to be probably the greatest manager to have ever graced the game.

Sunday 20 January 2013

Weekend review

Liverpool 5-0 Norwich
I said: 2-0, +1pt
Del said: 2-0, +1pt
Carl said: 1-1
Kingsley said: 3-1, +1pt

From the first few times they've played together, that Sturridge-Suarez parternship looks to be coming together nicely. At first I wasn't sure about Liverpool signing Sturridge, when he was at Chelsea I thought he was another overrated Englishman, of whom Liverpool seem to have signed so many. I thought Rodgers would have been better gambling on a young, South American or Spanish striker who suits his preferred style of football. A few good games for Sturridge hasn't changed that opinion entirely, but it was important he got off to a good start.


Man City 2-0 Fulham

I said: 3-1, +1pt
Del said: 3-0, +1pt
Carl said: 3-0+1pt
Kingsley said: 2-0, +3pts


I don't think anyone expected anything other than a routine win for City, which keeps the heat on United and they seem to keep delivering gentle reminders to their neighbours that the title is far from finished. I think for City it's a case of keeping themselves in it, because they've arguably got slightly trickier games over the next few weeks, but towards the end of the season United could be in 3 competitions and the teams still got to play each other. City musn't loosen their grip.


Newcastle 1-2 Reading

I said: 0-1+1pt
Del said: 0-2+1pt
Carl said: 2-0
Kingsley said: 2-1


Reading seem to be becoming the 'comeback kings', as they came from behind again and they've now given themselves genuine hope in the relegation battle- with favourable fixtures coming up also. I did rule them 'down' a few weeks ago, but if they can build on these two wins, then I'll have to reassess. That defeat certainly leaves Newcastle in peril as well, as I said before the game, it's imperative that they can get Cabaye and Ben Arfa back to full fitness, leave the hinderances of the Europa League early in the knockout rounds, sign a goalscorer and persuade Coloccini to stay. Other than that they've got no problems.


Swansea 3-1 Stoke

I said: 0-1
Del said: 0-1
Carl said: 2-2
Kingsley said: 1-1


All of us predicted Swansea to struggle, with their congested fixture schedule, against such a physical team such as Stoke. We were all to be proved wrong as Swansea played some terrific football, particularly for their third goal, to clinch an impressive win. If Laudrup can keep his Swansea team playing with the confidence that they are at the moment over a long period of time, I would rule out European football being played at the Liberty stadium in 5 years or so. If you can play tiki-taka as well as Swansea are, I think it's the future of the modern game.


West Ham 1-1 QPR

I said: 0-1
Del said: 2-0
Carl said: 0-0+1pt
Kingsley said: 1-2


The draw does at least keep QPR alive and kicking, and they could still climb out of the relegation zone in a couple of weeks, but a win would have provided more impetus. In a similar way to Reading, I had QPR as goners a few weeks ago when they lost 3-0 at home to Liverpool, but they've not lost a match since then. The £8 million signing of Remy is certainly a statement of intent.


Wigan 2-3 Sunderland

I said: 0-2+1pt
Del said: 1-1
Carl said: 2-0
Kingsley said: 0-1+1pt

It was actually a last minute change for me to go from Wigan to Sunderland winning this, but I'm glad I went for it- the loss of Ramis has clearly hurt Wigan and I reckoned their 3 at the back system would be exploited by Sunderland's strength on the flanks. That said, the result had more to do with Steven Fletcher's clinical finishing in front of goal, because both goals were very confidently taken. 




West Brom 2-2 Aston Villa

I said: 1-1+1pt
Del said: 2-1
Carl said: 1-0
Kingsley said: 2-0


Villa can take heart from that performance. I watched the first half of the match on the box, they played some good stuff and Benteke scored a cracking goal early on. They might be disappointed to let a 2-goal lead slip, but it was vital for Villa that they didn't lose this. It only takes one positive result for the confidence cycle of their young players to go back up again,  but the next crucial step will be to make sure they win a match after a terrible run. As a Blues fan I don't like to say this, but I do think it was just a blip- people have been overreacting because of the level of scorelines.


Chelsea 2-1 Arsenal

I said: 0-2
Del said: 2-3
Carl said: 2-2
Kingsley said: 3-1+1pt


I keep thinking that having to play so many matches over this winter period would eventually take it's toll on Chelsea, but despite losing a 2-goal lead to Southampton, they managed to hold on for a win. A small part of me feels a bit sorry for Torres, because I really want to see him back to his best and there have been times when he's shown brief signs of doing that, but it's not been consistent enough. Demba Ba at the moment you'd have to say is the better goalscorer- I think the best thing for Torres to do for his career, is move back to Spain where he may still have some of his pace left ahead of defenders.



Tottenham 1-1 Man Utd

I said: 1-2
Del said: 0-3
Carl said: 1-2
Kingsley said: 1-0

I watched this game and I thought, though Tottenham had the majority of the play, Ferguson showed yet again why he's the world-class manager he is, in his plan for Bale. Rafael and Phil Jones on the right side of midfield did well to get tight to him, and the likes of Cleverley, Carrick and Kagawa all did their bit to force Bale inside, which they did so successfully. I was surprised Ferdinand said they would have taken a point before the game though, because 5pts isn't quite a comfortable enough lead to have given that United will have to compete in the Champions League and the Manchester derby is coming up. The City/United title race is still reasonably open in my book.


Results

Let's have a look at who got these right then...

Kingsley
Correct results- 3
Perfect scorelines- 1, Man City 2-0 Fulham
Points- 6


Me
Correct results- 5
Perfect scorelines- 0
Points- 5

Del
Correct results- 3
Perfect scorelines- 0
Points- 3

Carl
Correct results- 2
Perfect scorelines- 0
Points- 2

Congratulations to @KingsleyBates who is this week's prediction winner for the second time running, and is the only person to guess a perfect score. You can check out Kingsley's sports blog here at http://kflbblog.blogspot.co.uk/

My thanks also to Del, and commiserations to Carl Hudson, @jabbinho- now you're without Demba Ba you need to stop predicting Newcastle wins!

My predictions game is done on a weekly basis, so if you fancy having a go, send your predictions and perhaps a few comments in to my twitter account: @_thescore
Alternatively, you can email me at: sutton.thescore@gmail.com

Until then, have a good week.

Friday 18 January 2013

Blues vs. Brighton preview


Let’s face it… the timings haven’t exactly favoured us going into this one. With the help of a wealthy chairman, Brighton have had a swanky new stadium built, they’ve become one of the best-supported clubs in the Championship, they’re now thriving in the top half of the Championship with a 100% start to 2013, having been promoted just 18 months ago. On the other hand, we’re languishing miserably near the bottom of the Championship table, with no money, without a win in 5, injury-stricken and the general future of our club painfully uncertain. Having said that, I do foresee a close game on Saturday. The one benefit of supporting an annoyingly inconsistent team is that when you’re on a minor winless streak, you can at least hope that the next win is around the corner, somewhere.
A look at the squad
If we’re going to sell Butland, I’d like to see us sell him immediately so that if any of that cash goes into the transfer kitty, rather than Carson’s pocket, we can give the squad some fresh faces. I’m not entirely sure what to read into Butland being left out of the squad against Leeds. He did play against Huddersfield on Saturday, so presumably his relationship with Clark is stable, yet I can’t help but feel that if he wasn’t linked with a move he would’ve at least been on the bench, on the count of being a more established keeper than Townsend. I would probably expect him to play against Brighton, but if this does turn out to be his last game for the club, I’m sure most of you would join me in wishing him well for the future- he does make a few mistakes, but I believe he’s got the potential to become an established Premiership goalkeeper in the long-term.
As always, I’d prefer to see Pablo play centre-back for a few games to see if it changes anything for us defensively. It’d be my judgement that Caldwell needs a rest, but Clark seems to want to stick with him. In fairness, his performances have picked up of late and maybe us playing with a settled back four will work eventually, but we’ve got to start keeping the clean sheets. I like the look of Caddis and Robinson as the fullbacks, because Caddis provides some tenacious overlapping runs going forward, and Robinson adds experience to the team.
Due to his lingering injury problems, Blues have decided not to extend the contract of Papa Bouba Diop which is probably wise- at this moment we can’t afford to be paying a player to not play. However, that does give us limited options in terms of defensive minded midfielders, because Spector has picked up another injury and Mullins is only just recovering from one, but Reilly should be fit. I’d go with Morrison in the centre alongside Gomis, more out of force than choice. When playing the 4-2-3-1 formation it’s normally important that you’ve got two holding midfielders, which neither Gomis nor Morrison really are, but then who else is there to play?
With Morrison now having to drop deeper from his usual advanced playmaker role, we’ve got little choice but to try and rush King and Lovenkrands back for experienced forward options. I reckon King could be the missing piece of the jigsaw from recent matches, because he can score goals and finish off chances – 12 goals from 22 games this season is impressive – but he can also hold the ball up well which will help in bringing the best out of Morrison, Redmond, Hall and Burke. If he can be deemed suitably fit, I’d be inclined to stick Lovenkrands on the left and Hall on the right, with perhaps Redmond in the hole behind King. I’d have Burke with Zigic on the bench as impact substitutes.
We’re very thin on the ground in terms of options at the moment, particularly in midfield and at full-back. Our injury crisis seems to be getting worse by the day, so whatever team sheet Clark will select, there can’t be too many arguments.
A bit about Brighton
You could be forgiven for not knowing too much about todays’opponents, because prior to the season before this, the last time we played Brighton in the league was in 1995. It was the penultimate home game of our promotion season, but goals from Jose Dominguez, Peter Shearer and Mark Ward couldn’t secure us a win in a 3-3 draw against the Seagulls. Remember that match? Nor me, I was 3. The most notable time in Brighton’s history was when they spent 3 years in the top flight in the early 80s. Having already been relegated that season, 1982-83 saw them reach the FA Cup final, which they lost to Manchester United in a replay. However, the first match will always be remembered for the phrase: “and Smith must score…” when striker Gordon Smith had a one-on-one chance to win the FA Cup for them, but tragically he missed and Brighton went into the second division, and a long-term decline, with little consolation. However, if Brighton haven’t had the most successful history, recent developments such as their new stadium and form in the Championship, suggest they’ve now got a rapidly growing one.
Brighton’s recent form
Brighton will be looking to continue their 100% start to 2013. They’ve won their last 3 matches in all competitions, which includes a 2-0 victory over Premier League opponents Newcastle in the FA Cup. They’ve also recently signed Spanish striker Leonardo Alloa in an attempt to boost their goal tally. Having looked him up on the internet, Alloa has scored 29 goals for Spanish 2nd division side Almeria last year. If Brighton win and results work in their favour this weekend, they could move into the play-off places. It’s probably worth also knowing, that Gus Poyet’s side have got the second best defensive record in the division, but the worst ‘goals for’ record in the top half.
The dangerman
Craig Mackail-Smith is Brighton’s top scorer with 11 league goals this season and is therefore, along with Alloa, their biggest goal threat. A hardworking and industrious centre forward, Mackail-Smith came up through the youth setup at St Albans City and was in fact released by the club in 2003. They may be rueing that decision now, because he went on to score 80 goals for Peterborough, before signing for Brighton and becoming a relative success at the AMEX stadium. I would say he’s their main man.
My prediction
I think I’ll try a technique where I keep predicting Blues to keep a clean sheet until we actually get one! Eventually it’ll happen. We’ve now conceded in each of our last 14 games, which has got to end at some point so of course I’ll start off by going for a clean sheet. I really want to see Marlon King back to a decent level of fitness, because he’ll be crucial to our goalscoring plans. I’m going to let my heart rule my head a bit on this one and say 1-0 to the Blues, but I can see myself starting to check my phone more anxiously for the Peterborough and Barnsley results during the game.

My Premiership predictions- 19/01/13

Liverpool vs. Norwich

Liverpool played well in the last half of their match at Old Trafford last week but they let United dominate for the most part. If you let them do that, then of course they'll punish you with their quality, so it'd be wrong really to say that the Reds deserved a point. On the whole though Liverpool are in good form, because they'd won three straight matches before that, and I don't think defeat to a team like Man United will disrupt their rhythm too much.

Norwich needed their point against Newcastle to stop the rot after 4 league defeats, but after that result they've got to play Liverpool and Tottenham, which may not help their confidence going into some of their more winnable games. I'd be surprised if they got dragged into a relegation battle, I'm going to put this down to a poor patch of form which every club inevitably goes through.

I can't see past a comfortable Liverpool win. They've been in much better form than Norwich over the past few weeks and look to be climing the table, and at the moment I wouldn't be able to see the Canaries stopping them getting a 4th win from 5. 2-0.

Del says: 2-0
Carl says: "what will Suarez admit to this time?" 1-1
Kingsley says: 3-1

Man City vs. Fulham

This is equally as straightforward a home win prediction for me. I was about to say that Fulham are in poor form, having recorded just 1 win from their last 7 league matches, but then again they're also unbeaten in 2013, so it's not all bad for them. Jol bravely decided to rotate a large proportion of his team for the FA Cup replay against Blackpool in preparation for this match  - which was perhaps a necessary measure if he wanted to have the best chance of getting something from it - but I still don't reckon they will.

Man City are looking strong at the moment and have won 6 of their last 7 games which may have softened the blow of losing at home to Man United in December, but I don't reckon they'll catch them. Still, they're playing with a sparkle at the moment and the win at Arsenal was probably an important reminder to everyone that the title race is still on.

I'll go for 3-1 Man City. Berbatov was rested in midweek for Fulham and he's always a threat, plus Fulham have the best 'goals for' record in the bottom half of the table so a goal for the Cottagers isn't out of the question, but that goal will be simply outweighed by the number City can score with their quality.

Del says: 3-0
Carl says: 3-0
Kingsley says: 2-0

Newcastle vs. Reading

That win for Reading last week at least gives them some hope. My money would still be on their relegation,  but the result should give the team a belief that they can come from behind, which may be useful later in the season. Whatever happens in the next few weeks, you'd have to give Brian McDermott some credit, because when they lost 5-2 to Arsenal I had them down as goners, but they've picked up some crucial points since then, so they're still in with a shout.

I was sure that Newcastle were going to sign Remy, but until they sign an established goalscorer I will worry for them, hopefully they can persuade Coloccini to stay until the summer, but they also need to get Ben Arfa and Cabaye back to full fitness pronto. It may be that they can keep Coloccini on a short-term basis, they probably will sign a new striker in the remain two weeks of January and Cabaye made the subs bench against Norwich. Until those three main problems are sorted out though, I'm just not sure how Newcastle can gain confidence. 0-1

Del says: 0-2
Carl says: "Not sure who will get the goals! 2-0"
Kingsley says: 2-1

Swansea vs. Stoke

Swansea are at an exciting time in their season, in the top half of the Premiership and they would have to be the favourites to win the Carling Cup. I'd love to be a Swansea fan at the moment, after suffering years of being at the bottom of the fourth tier, but I have a feeling that the number of midweek games they'll have had to play this month will catch up with them at some point. They were very lucky to hold onto a point at Everton, so maybe they're due a defeat.

Hats off to Jonathon Walters, who put a hapless performance against Chelsea last week behind him by scoring two in the cup against Crystal Palace and the 4-1 win also wasn't a bad way for Stoke to put an end to 3 successive games without a goal. Although Crystal Palace are a division below, they are in the upper quarter of the Championship so it will have been a confidence boosting result.

I just think that because Stoke have had more time to rest after their midweek game than Swansea, and having won that match, their in a better position than the Swans physically and mentally. The teams' league positions point towards a draw but looking at it more closely, I reckon Stoke might just have a bit too much muscle for Swansea, so I think they'll win 0-1.

Del says: 0-1
Carl says: 2-2
Kingsley says: 1-1

West Ham vs. QPR

People have been saying that West Ham are in bad form at the moment, but I'm not sure they are. They only real disappointment for them was losing 3-0 to Sunderland last week, but other than that they've been doing alright- they were expected to lose to Man United really and did quite well to keep the score so close over 2 games.

QPR have made a big statement of intent in signing Loic Remy, and that does tip my relegation prediction for the Rs into the balance. To be able to attract a player like Remy, who was playing in the Champions League last season, is a big signing for them. I just worry whether the club would run out of money if they failed to stay up- he's on a long-term contract and the fact he chose QPR over Newcastle suggests he'll pick up a more than substantial pay packet.

I think Remy will get off to a good start as QPR's new signing with a goal and West Ham don't score many, so I'll go for a 0-1 away win. I can see Harry's mini-revival of the Rs continuing, partly on the grounds that they need the points considerably more than West Ham do.

Del says: 2-0
Carl says: 0-0
Kingsley says: 1-2

Wigan vs. Sunderland

Wigan got a decent point at Fulham, coming from behind as well, to propel themselves out of the relegation zone. It could still go either way for them with Villa only below the Latics on goal difference and QPR and Reading now coming into form, so this is a real opportunity for them to pick up some all-important points.

Sunderland got a great win over West Ham last week and they're now 6pts above the relegation zone, and playing with some confidence. A few weeks ago I really feared for them, but they've grown from strength to strength since then with a few win, and have began found their goals from other areas of the park than Steven Fletcher.

I've not had an easy time calling it, but in the end I've settled on a Sunderland win. Wigan will be without Ramis and Kone for this game, who'll both be big losses, but also Sunderland have got skilfull wingers in their team and Wigan have often been found playing 3 at the back. There should be a lot of space for Sunderland's wide men to do the damage. 0-2.

Del says: 1-1
Carl says: "Can only put Mackems for a loss! 2-0"
Kingsley says: 0-1

West Brom vs. Aston Villa

Neither of these sides are in good shape. West Brom are now without a win in 5 in all competitions, what's more, 4 of those matches have ended in defeats for the Baggies. No West Brom fan could have expected their wonderful run over November to go on forever, so I'm not surprised they've hit a bit of a lull. In many ways, Steve Clarke deserves great credit whatever happens. I thought West Brom would go down at the beginning of the season but I've calculated that to stay up, a team this season needs an average of just 35pts, and I think West Brom will reach that level today- not that they'll ever be worried about it.

For Villa it's a completely different story and their season is on a knife edge. I think their defence will improve once Vlaar comes back into the side, he should provide Villa with more experience, but this is a vital game. I don't like to say it's a game they 'can't afford to lose', because we're in January, not May, but every point counts.

I'm going to go for a draw, because neither team look in a position to grab the game by the scruff of the neck and win, but I think it'll be a score draw because both have shown questionable defending of late. Well, more than questionable in Villa's case. 1-1.

Del says: 2-1
Carl says: "want to see Villa relegated.1-0" (you're not the only one, Carl!)
Kingsley says: 2-0


Chelsea vs. Arsenal

I can't believe Chelsea let a 2 goal lead slip against Southampton, that'll be really disappointing from Rafa Benitez's point of view, after brilliantly winning 4-0 at Stoke. I just get the feeling that eventually, the number of games they've had to play since going to the club world cup will affect them. 

Arsenal's trophy hopes are still alive after they beat Swansea in midweek thanks to a Jack Wilshere goal, and I've got a feeling they'll make the FA Cup final. The Gunners will certainly be buoyed by the news that Theo Walcott has signed a new contract, an issue which has dragged on for a long time now.

I'm going to go with my instinct and say an Arsenal win. After such a congested run of matches Chelsea could become leggy at the back, and I could see Arsenal scoring a couple of classic counterattacking goals through Walcott. 0-2.

Del says: 2-3
Carl says: 2-2
Kingsley says: 3-1

Tottenham vs. Man Utd

I would expect it to be a case of damage limitation for Tottenham this weekend. I would expect Everton to win at Southampton on Monday night, so Tottenham will want to reduce the amount of points to the Toffees gain on them by getting a result on the Sunday. Their best chance is probably by attacking the slightly inexperienced Rafael down the left through Gareth Bale, if they want to get to the heart of United's defence.

In his predictions which I've had a peak at, Mark Lawrenson said that Ferguson might take a point here. I'm not sure I agree, I think he'll set his side out to control the midfield and attack Tottenham, who haven't got the best of defences. Besides, it's rarely within Fergie's nature to settle for a point.

It'll be an interesting game because assuming Man City win on Saturday, United need to make sure they don't make up any ground, because a 4 or 5pt lead could change in a couple of weeks. I'm going to back them not to though, because I think they've got a matchwinner in their team in Robin van Persie.

Del says: 0-3
Carl says: 1-2
Kingsley says: 1-0


Southampton vs. Everton

I've got no idea why Southampton sacked Nigel Adkins- it was a ludicrous decision! He'd got them promoted twice in two seasons, the absolute maximum the board could have asked of him, and if they were to finish 17th this season it would be an achievement, and they're currently 15th! The other strange thing is the timing of the sacking, after the team came back from 2 down against Chelsea to get a point! His sacking defies reason- there's no logic to it at all.

If he hadn't have been sacked, I think I was inching towards an Everton win but I'm even more sure now. They were very unfortunate to only draw with Swansea, because they created some great chances which Jelavic would have finished on another day.

I'm going for a straightforward Everton win, because the appointment of Pochettino at Southampton will have unsettled the players and mystified the fans. I don't think that'll create an atmosphere capable of keeping a team like Everton at bay. 0-2

Del says: 1-2
Carl says: "why sack Adkins? 0-1"
Kingsley says: 1-3