Gabriel's Championship Predictions: 1st March

In the Championship this weekend, the key games are at the upper end of the table. Nottingham Forest, who will now be without six key players, face a Wigan side who have won their last four. There’s a six-pointer in the race for automatic promotion. Burnley will go five points clear of the play-offs with a win over third place Derby, yet a win for the Rams would see them leapfrog their opponents and move into second.  Charlton will be looking to clinch an unlikely double over runaway leaders Leicester, as the Addicks have shown promise of getting out of trouble lately, while QPR cannot afford any more dropped points, they host midtable Leeds in lunchtime kick-off. Here is our preview of the games.

QPR vs. Leeds

Connor Wickham

QPR lost a third game in a row at Charlton last weekend, and are in serious danger of falling away from the automatic promotion race. What’s more, this is a bad time to hit poor form. If these defeats were happening around Christmas, they would have the time to put things right and regain momentum, yet now we are approaching the run-in period, with Burnley and Derby in much better form. Leeds have signed Connor Wickham on loan from Sunderland, which could be a coup for Brian McDermott. His side have failed to score more often than not since the turn of the year, and a target man, next to wingers Kebe and Stewart, should suit Leeds’ direct style of play. Wickham scored eight goals in eleven games for Sheffield Wednesday, so he should boost their goal tally. Neither side are playing with too much confidence at the moment and this might be a draw. 1-1.

Bolton vs. Blackburn

Blackburn are a frustratingly unpredictable team. There’s never really been a point in the season where you can say that they are in good or bad form, because they’ve never won, or lost, more than two games back-to-back. Even after they won 1-0 at Reading, reducing one of the best teams in the league to just one shot on target, it is hard to say whether they will generate enough momentum to break into the top six. Joe Mason returned for Bolton in their win over Watford, and that could be a big plus for the Trotters. In previous weeks they have played with just the one striker, and have not quite created enough, but the forward partnership of Jutkiewicz and Mason looks very promising. Bolton’s home form may be improving gradually, with just one defeat in five at the Reebok since New Year, so I’ll go with my gut and back them to pick up three points. 2-1.

Bournemouth vs. Doncaster

Eddie Howe

Doncaster’s only away win was back in September, and they have only scored once on their travels in their last two months. This is a chance for Bournemouth to put right their difficult run of form, just one win in nine, albeit against the division’s better teams. Both managers brought in a striker in the last month. Eddie Howe signed Yann Kermorgant from Charlton, while Paul Dickov loaned Jordan Bowery from Aston Villa. Neither have hit the ground running, as both forwards are yet to score for their new side. These teams were promoted from League One last season, so there is not much to separate them, and a draw is the likely outcome. 1-1.

Burnley vs. Derby

Whenever Burnley play, they simply never look like they will be beaten. If they avoid defeat today, they will have gone a year unbeaten at home, a feat which might just enter the Championship record books. The latest challengers at Turf Moor though, are Burnley’s biggest threat to their ambitions of automatic promotion. Derby County are just two points behind the Clarets in third, and are on an unbeaten run of their own, stretching to seven games after a third straight 1-0 win last week, over Bournemouth. It is surprising that Steve McClaren has brought in left-back Lee Naylor, whose contract was recently cancelled at League Two Accrington Stanley, because Craig Forsyth has been a reliable fixture at left-back for Derby. I’ve doubted Burnley too many times to do so again, and I think they’ll pick up a massive win, to go five points clear of third. 2-1.

Huddersfield vs. Barnsley

Paddy McCourt

This game should provide an interesting tactical match-up. Many have said that for Barnsley, a central pairing of Frimpong’s tenacity, and Mellis’s flair, looked promising against Millwall. However, Huddersfield can congest the midfield with their 3-5-2 system, so if he plays, Jacob Mellis will perhaps be required to work harder than usual. The dilemma for Danny Wilson is that if you play Mellis, do you also play Patrick McCourt on the right? He has looked lively for Barnsley and could do well given the absence of a fullback on Huddersfield’s flanks, yet like Mellis, McCourt falls into the luxury player category. He does not tend to track back so much. The other factor is that Huddersfield’s defenders, particularly Tom Smith and Peter Clarke, are not the best in the air and could struggle against the height of O’Grady and Proschwitz. 1-1.

Ipswich vs. Birmingham

Ipswich have brought in a creative player, Jonathan Williams from Crystal Palace, at completely the wrong time. After a recent injury to top scorer David McGoldrick, it will now be difficult for them to put away the goals, rather than set them up, such has been the problem this season. Even with that extra spark in midfield, it is difficult to see Ipswich getting back into contention for a play-off spot. Birmingham simply cannot stop winning away. They got their seventh win on the road at Blackpool last week, only Derby and Leicester have won more, and if just away games counted, the Blues would be sixth in the table. Considering that Ipswich have failed to score in their last two, I’ll back Lee Clark’s men to enjoy another away victory. 0-1.

Leicester vs. Charlton

Chris Wood

Leicester beat Ipswich 3-0, with three of their strikers getting on the scoresheet. There was a goal for substitute Chris Wood, his first since early November, and he might be able to provide competition for the established partnership of David Nugent and Jamie Vardy. Charlton have shown signs of getting out of trouble in the last week. As well as reaching the FA Cup quarter-finals, the Addicks beat promotion contenders QPR on Saturday. They do tend to fare better against the top teams. Chris Powell’s side actually beat Leicester at home back in August, although one of the goalscorers that day, Yann Kermorgant, has since left for Bournemouth. A win for the Foxes, but it may be harder than most will predict. 2-1.

Millwall vs. Brighton

Two different styles of football on show here. Brighton have kept an average of 61% possession since the start of February, whereas Millwall have the second-lowest average possession % in the Championship, and typically play a long ball game. All of Millwall’s chances against Bolton and Barnsley came from direct balls into the box from deep, whereas Brighton seem to have more of a probing, precision style of play. Millwall’s defence has little pace at the moment, and the way Brighton can keep the ball, I would expect them to break Millwall down eventually. The Seagulls need to rediscover the away form they had in the first half of the season. 0-2.

Nottm Forest vs. Wigan

Andy Reid

Nottingham Forest’s momentum seems to have evaporated quickly. After they won 3-0 at Huddersfield, they looked likely to push for the automatics. Yet mood in the camp will have dipped after a few bad results, and now the latest blow is a six week injury to Andy Reid. The midfielder has contributed, through scoring and assists, to twenty of Forest’s fifty-three goals this season. But they seem to be getting countless injuries to key players this season, and you might wonder whether this has something to do with Billy Davies’s training methods. Wigan have won their last four in all forms, and seem to be playing with so much confidence under Uwe Rosler, they won away to fellow contenders Brighton. I’d fancy Wigan for the momentum factor. 1-2.

Reading vs. Yeovil

Yeovil are refusing to lie down, aren’t they? After they lost a third straight game against Leeds a few weeks ago, albeit a decent performance, it was easy to write them off. But they have taken points from each of their last three, and beat Doncaster 1-0 last time, with loanee Dwayne Holmes making a credible contribution on his debut. However, Gary Johnson will be sweating over the fitness of another loanee, Ishmael Miller. It could be largely luck that determines Yeovil’s fate on Saturday. Reading’s recent form reads: won, lost, won, won, lost, won, lost. Inconsistency is the word which springs to mind. The Glovers will be hoping they are not playing Reading on one of their better days, because they have thrashed Doncaster, Bolton and Blackpool at the Madjeski. This could be one of the good days for Reading. With the width in their team, they should stretch this Yeovil defence. 3-0.

Sheff Wed vs. Middlesbrough

Gary Madine

Gary Madine has rejoined Sheffield Wednesday’s squad after being released from jail, but from a purely footballing point of view, Stuart Gray does not necessarily need him. This is a striker who has not played for four months, and Wednesday already have Afobe, Nuhiu and Leon Best in the squad, as well as a number of other attack-minded players. It is not as if they have no options.  Middlesbrough have now not scored for six games in a row. Their most talented attacking players, the likes of Albert Adomah and Jorge Ledesma have completely lost their form since the turn of the year, and it is difficult to see why. On the other hand, Sheffield Wednesday have only conceded twelve goals in fourteen games since Gray took charge. A Wednesday side who are hard to break down, against a Middlesbrough side who are finding it hard to break teams down. This has the makings of a goalless. 0-0.

Watford vs. Blackpool

Watford have brought in Lucas Neill on a free transfer. This seems like a strange move, considering the fact that Neill has not played since November - and that was in the Japanese league. Four clean sheets from their last six games suggests that defensive solidity is no longer Watford’s problem.  Blackpool’s infamous winless run was stretched to sixteen games, when they lost at home to Birmingham last week. Ill-discipline continues to be their problem, as Liverpool loanee Jack Robinson picked up his third red card of the season and, remarkably, Blackpool’s tenth. Watford have kept a clean sheet in five of their last six home games, and the performances Blackpool have been putting in lately, this should make it a sixth in seven. 1-0. 

Gabriel's Championship Predictions: 22nd February

There are key games in all battles in the Championship this weekend. Nottingham Forest, who are unbeaten since the end of November, will go two points behind the second automatic promotion spot if they can become the first Championship side to win at Turf Moor this season. The race for the final play-off spot is hotting up too. Brighton host Wigan, as both teams look to gain ground on Reading, who play Blackburn, a side who might also be eyeing that play-off place themselves. As for the battle to beat the drop, this Saturday will see four of the current bottom five playing against each other, as Yeovil could move to within three points off safety with a win over a Doncaster side with a concerning away record, while Barnsley look to get their second victory under Danny Wilson against Millwall, who are in poor form and looking precariously over their shoulders. Here is our preview of the action.

Middlesbrough vs. Leeds

Shay Given

Aitor Karanka has openly criticized his Middlesbrough players’ attitudes, after they went five games without a win, failing to score in each of them. Having a go at your own players can be a risky approach for a manager to take, and it will be interesting to see how the Boro players respond. What’s more, Shay Given’s loan will expire after this match and that will could be a problem, because they are relying on being able to keep a clean sheet to pick up points. Leeds have had an eleven day break, after their loss at Brighton further hindered their chances of getting a play-off spot. Brian McDermott can recall target man Matt Smith from injury, but he might take time to return to full fitness, and the experience of Jonathan Woodgate at the back for Boro should be able to cope with him. This might not be the best game for the Sky cameras to show, as these two sides both look likely to finish mid-table. 1-1.

Barnsley vs. Millwall

The partnership of Chris O’Grady and Nick Proschwitz looks to have some potential at Barnsley. O’Grady has the strength to hold the ball up, and Proschwitz, although he’s tall, has some clever movement and looks a decisive finisher. There is still time for this budding duo to save the Tykes. They need to start winning quickly, having won just once since Wilson took over, despite some encouraging performances. Millwall’s problem is they have little pace in defence, so Ian Holloway has brought in left-back Federico Bessone. This might not solve the problem, because Bessone was available as a free agent, and has not played competitive football for some ten months. The survival bid of both these teams is centred wholly on their home form, and that is why Barnsley may grab a win here. 2-1.

Blackpool vs. Birmingham

Faris Haroun

Blackpool have steadied the ship a little bit lately, with just two defeats from five games. Although they’ve still not picked up a win since the end of November, at least they are no longer on that painful losing streak, so they are unlikely to get sucked into the relegation dogfight. The arrival of Faris Haroun could give them a boost. Although the Tangerines did not score at Ipswich, Haroun looked lively and may provide Barry Ferguson’s side a much-needed spark in midfield. Given the fact that they have only won once since the turn of the year, you might not have guessed that Birmingham have the joint-second best away form in the Championship. The Blues have taken ten points from their last six on the road, and have only been beaten once away since mid-October. 1-1.

Bolton vs. Watford

Bolton Wanderers have not won a match since Boxing Day, and are struggling to build confidence. Although they did not lose at Millwall last week, the midfield and defence was all over the place, and there seems to be no sense of leadership within the camp. If they want to improve their organisation, perhaps Bolton could take a leaf out of Watford’s book. The Hornets have kept four clean sheets from their last five games, although they could not find a winner against bottom of the table Yeovil on Tuesday night. In the 1999 play-off final, Watford won this fixture 2-0, and we could see a repeat of that scoreline here. 0-2.

Brighton vs. Wigan

Uwe Rosler

Brighton have won their last three home games 1-0. Although they only won four times at the AMEX in the first half of the season, their home record is clearly improving, and an ability to hold onto the ball has been key to this. But Wigan have won their last three, recently knocking Premier League Cardiff out of the FA Cup. However, this is the first of four difficult away games between now and April for the Latics, who have challenging trips to Forest, Ipswich and QPR coming up. These are two teams who are at similar levels in terms of quality and defensive structure, and a tight game is very much on the cards. 1-1.

Burnley vs. Nottm Forest

Burnley took what turned out to be a decent point at Bournemouth last week, with QPR losing. However, they now play two teams who are likely to test their unbeaten home record. in Derby, and Saturday’s opponents, Nottingham Forest. Forest are unbeaten since the end of November, and Jamie Paterson looks to be in excellent form for Billy Davies’s side. If he plays in his usual role cutting in from the left, he could get a few more goalscoring opportunities, with Burnley’s right-back Trippier quite attack-minded. The main problem regarding both of these teams’ promotion ambitions, is that they both draw a lot of games, and sometimes lack the audacity to attack to try and win in the closing stages. For that reason, a draw is the fair bet. 1-1.

Charlton vs. QPR

Ravel Morrison

Charlton have now lost their last four league games, so things are certainly looking ominous at the Valley. The Addicks have only scored once since New Years’ Day, and they seem to be suffering from the loss of their main striker, Yann Kermorgant. QPR have loaned in Ravel Morrison from West Ham, but that might not be the solution to their lack of creativity this season. It is not as if Harry Redknapp does not have flair players available to him, with Benayoun, Hoilett and Kranjcar in the squad, but they have simply not performed. QPR need to better manage the players they have got, rather than constantly look to bring in new ones. However, even after back-to-back defeats, the Rs might just get back onto the promotion path with a hard-fought win. 0-1.

Derby vs. Bournemouth

One of QPR’s recent defeats was to Derby County, who are now unbeaten in six. January loanee Patrick Bamford has played a critical role in their return to form, having scored in five of his last six games, many of them being vital goals. Bournemouth have only lost one of their last five games, but on the other hand, they have only won one of their last eight! From seven games against the Championship’s top five teams, they have taken three points. The case is often that they do not disgrace themselves, but end up lacking that bit of quality and lose by the odd goal. We may see a similar story here. 2-1.

Huddersfield vs. Sheff Wed

Oliver Norwood

Huddersfield have won three of their last four home games, and positive performances at the John Smith’s stadium have been key to a progressive season for the Terriers. As well as a number of striking options, they are starting to add goals from midfield, as Oliver Norwood and Adam Clayton both netted in the win at Birmingham. After back-to-back defeats, this could be the time where Sheffield Wednesday’s results under Stuart Gray start to dwindle, and it would seem the novelty of the new manager effect has somewhat worn off. In their last two games, Wednesday seem to have developed a habit of firing shots at goal from range, which suggests they have lost that bit of confidence they had over that eleven game unbeaten run. This will be an eighth home win of the season for Huddersfield. 2-0.

Leicester vs. Ipswich

If a couple of draws against Watford and Forest are the extent of the damage in terms of Leicester dropping points, they have nothing to worry about, and should still cruise to promotion. In fact, a point at Nottingham Forest can be considered a good result, because they were a goal behind with a few minutes to go, and now they have a favourable run of games coming up. Charlton, Blackpool and Yeovil are the next three home games after this, so if they can keep winning those sorts of matches, they will go up. Ipswich’s chances, not only of getting a result here but also of making the play-offs, have taken a huge blow by the fact that David McGoldrick could be injured for the rest of the season. McGoldrick has netted sixteen times during this campaign – that’s over 37% of Ipswich’s overall goal tally. With him out of the equation, this should be a comfortable one for Leicester. 2-0.

Reading vs. Blackburn

Garath McCleary

You’d expect to see an open, entertaining game here. Reading recently won 3-1 at QPR, thanks to another good performance from Gareth McCleary, and they will go into this game full of confidence. On the other hand, Blackburn will see this game as a better opportunity than they are ever going to get to push towards the play-offs. Reading currently occupy that sixth spot, but a win for Blackburn would take them to four points behind the Royals with a game in hand. Rovers are likely to approach this one in an attacking, ‘nothing-to-lose’ kind of mood. This is a difficult one to call because Reading have a habit of following up an emphatic win with a disappointing result, and you never quite know which Royals side are going to turn up. 2-2.

Yeovil vs. Doncaster

By contrast, this is a game where chances could be at a premium. For a start, Doncaster do not tend to play with too much confidence away from home. In four away games since the turn of the year, they have had a total of just eleven shots on target, and almost twice that amount at home. Paul Dickov seems to encourage a more cautious mentality on the road. But Yeovil have a better away record than home, despite not having had a majority in possession away since the match at Leeds in early November. This suggests that they are generally a counter-attacking team, and are at their best when their opponents try to push men forward against them. These two factors could contribute to something of a stalemate, and a goalless draw seems a plausible outcome. 0-0.

Championship: Who Is Going Down?

Believe it or not, we are now two-thirds of the way through this Championship season, and the preverbial ‘business end’ starts now. In recent seasons, the run-in has seen Barnsley make the great escape, it has seen Reading storm to the title, and Blackpool get that last play-off spot to ultimately go up under Ian Holloway. Those moments are now in the making, as managers are preparing the players for that final push towards their goals. So far, it is fair to say that the Championship has not quite been at its unpredictable, dramatic best. But with teams now desperate for points, that is sure to change in the following three months. Here’s how I see things going with the battle to beat the drop, in part one of three installments.

The standard of the relegation battle, so far, has been relatively poor. Last season, Peterborough went down with fifty-four points, averaging well over a point per game. This season, Charlton are currently in that third relegation spot, and they have taken just twenty-four points from twenty-eight games. Barnsley and Yeovil have always occupied the bottom two places, and have looked a likely bet to go down since the start of the season. But will there be a revival from either of those sides?

Nick Proschwitz

Barnsley

Situation:

Pos 23rd

Pld 30

Pts 23

Estimated Points Required (EPR): 25pts/16 games.

Why will they stay up?

They are the kings of run-in resurgence, and stayed up on the final day of last season, under David Flitcroft. They are one of the Championship’s longest serving clubs, despite more often than not being embroiled in a relegation battle. The squad has done it before. Striker Nick Proschwitz has made a real goalscorer’s impact since joining on loan, and just one defeat in six suggests the team is remaining competitive in the Championship.

Why will they go down?

They have only won once since Danny Wilson took over as manager in December, and are averaging 0.8pts per game under his leadership. This is hardly the ‘honeymoon period’ most Tykes fans will have been hoping for. There is a lack of goals from midfield, so an injury to top scorer Chris O’Grady could prove costly. Not to mention Barnsley have one of the worst away records in the Football League.

Verdict

Things looked ominous right from that 4-0 home defeat to Wigan on the opening day. Unless the promising partnership of O’Grady and Proschwitz dictates otherwise, next season could well be Barnsley’s first outside England’s second tier since 05-06. Down.

Dougie Freedman

Bolton

Situation:

Pos 19th

Pld 31

Pts 30

EPR 18pts/15 games

Why will they stay up?

They beat the teams around them. Wanderers have taken a total of twelve points from six games against those below, which suggests Freedman’s side are a class above their competitors in terms of experience and quality. Striker Lukas Jutkiewicz has had a positive impact, scoring twice since coming in on loan recently.

Why will they go down?

Momentum - or lack thereof. The Trotters have not won a match since Boxing Day, and seem to be stuck in a bit of a rut at the moment. Given how much the squad is under-performing, the board might have sacked manager Dougie Freedman, were it not for the fact the club are reportedly in over £100M worth of debt, and cannot afford to pay a compensation fee. This issue to could affect the morale of the squad.

Verdict

Bolton should have enough about themselves to stay up this season. But, the core of their team possibly leaving this summer due to the club’s financial woes, they are likely to be in even more trouble next time around. Safe.

Roland Duchatelet

Charlton

Situation:

Pos 22nd

Pld 28

Pts 24

EPR 24pts/18 games

Why will they stay up?

Charlton still have the new manager card to play. As good a job Chris Powell has done, it is likely that the club’s new chairman, Roland Duchatelet, does not see him as the man he wants in charge. He may do something similar to what the Watford owners have done, and appoint a Belgian manager he is in contact with. Though it is difficult to predict what kind of impact this change would have on the players, often they are keen to perform well and impress when a new boss comes in. Importantly, Charlton have a number of games in hand on the teams above them.

Why will they go down?

The arrival of the new chairman could have been very unsettling for the players. If so, the problem will not have been helped by the fact that he sold two of their best players, Yann Kermorgant and Dale Stephens. Much of the squad which finished 9^th last season has changed, with sixteen departures since the summer. These are difficult times at the Valley, and the uncertainty at the top has come at completely the wrong time, with the team still in the relegation places.

Verdict

Those games in hand will prove decisive, and a possible change of manager might just fire the players up for the run-in. Charlton will be safe – just.

Abdoulaye Meite

Doncaster

Situation:

Pos 20^th

Pld 31

Pts 30

EPR 18pts/15 games

Why will they stay up?

As with Millwall, their home record is strong. They have not lost any of their last five at the Keepmoat, and the fact that the Rovers have turned over QPR, Leicester and in-form Wigan in South Yorkshire, suggests the team is more than worthy of competing in the Championship. The arrival of centre-back Abdoulaye Meite - who Bolton and West Brom fans may remember - has added a wealth of experience to their defence. Since he came in, Donny have only conceded five goals in seven games, so Meite is a very good replacement for the injured Rob Jones.

Why will they go down?

Goals. Their top scorer is Chris Brown (no, they’ve not signed another pop star) and he has only scored six so far, while Theo Robinson is battling a knee injury. Federico Macheda did little to impress on his loan spell, so Doncaster fans will be hoping for loan strikers Billy Sharp and Jordan Bowery to produce, as well as a bigger contribution from wingers Marc Duffy and the evergreen James Coppinger. If the saying ‘you’re only as good as your strikers’ is anything to go by, Doncaster are in for a struggle.

Verdict

They will be playing a lot of midtable teams towards the end of the season, and that could work in their favour. Rovers will not concede many goals with Meite in the team, but the key will be whether they can find a reliable goalscorer in their ranks. Safe.

Ian Holloway

Millwall

Situation:

Pos 21st

Pld 31

Pts 28

EPR 20pts/15 games

Why will they stay up?

They spent the first half of the season under a manager, Steve Lomas, who was captain of the club’s biggest rivals for nine years. The fans hated him, so that was bound to influence performances from the players. Now, they no longer have that problem, with the appointment of Ian Holloway in January. The Lions do have some experienced strikers in Steve Morison and Scott MacDonald, at least one of whom you’d expect to start firing consistently. Their home form has been strong this season, and crucially, their remaining seven games at the Den are against midtable, or relegation-threatened sides.

Why will they go down?

Ian Holloway has only won one of his first seven in charge, despite some winnable games. Like with Danny Wilson at Barnsley, he has not had the expected impact of galvanizing the team. Millwall will struggle to find momentum, in a situation where they have already played three more games than the team below them. The flip side of their positive home form, is that their away record is dreadful, with eight points from fifteen on the road. Five of their remaining eight away games are against teams aiming for promotion. In the entire Football League, only Crewe Alexandra have conceded more goals than the Lions, who are suffering from a lack of pace in defence.

Verdict

It can go one of two ways. Good results at home could boost confidence so they start to pick up results away, or we could see the opposite. My gut tells me that Holloway and Millwall is a bit of a mismatch. Lions fans, who naturally take to the ‘hard man’ characters like Harry Cribbs, ‘Razor’ Ruddock and Kevin Muscat, won’t necessarily appreciate the wisdom of some philosophical Bristolian, once they start to get a few bad results. Things might just go pear-shaped at the Den. Down.

Ishmael Miller

Yeovil

Situation:

Pos 24th

Pld 30

Pts 22

EPR: 26pts/16 games

Why will they stay up?

The underdog factor. Nobody expects Yeovil to stay up, and they will be under no pressure to do so. This is something which can work in their favour. Most teams that play Yeovil between now and the end of the season, will approach the game under the weight of expectation. As their better away record than home will suggest, the Glovers are at their best when faced with teams who attack them and push men forward. That way, they can soak up pressure and strike on the counter-attack. Loanee Ishmael Miller has given them some proven quality going forward, with five goals in eleven games at Hush Park. Underestimate Yeovil at your peril.

Why will they go down?

The fact that they have the lowest wage bill in the Championship, instantly tells you something about the technical quality in the squad. It is limited. As hard as the players might work, a bunch of ‘huffers-and-puffers’ will not win you games. They have home attendances of a measly 7,000, so the club does not have the infrastructure to compete at this level. Yeovil are just lucky to be here.

Verdict

They will not go down without a fight, but relegation beckons for the cider boys. Down.

The Huddersfield View

Before Birmingham City's match against Huddersfield Town yesterday, I interviewed Terriers fan Luke Sipka. Here, he discusses his club’s improvement in terms of financial security, the recent signing of Nahki Wells, and his thoughts on Birmingham's current manager, Lee Clark…

In this division about fifteen years ago, you went into a decline due to overspending. Has the club learnt it’s lessons?

Chairman - Dean Hoyle

Oh God yes, it’s a totally different boardroom. These days, we are owned by a lifelong fan and successful entrepreneur (Card Factory, if you’re interested) who has turned a club on a downward spiral with no assets to an established Championship club close to breaking even. He has gotten us shares in the stadium, our own training ground complex, and a good 5,000+ home fans coming back; not a bad legacy. We took a massive risk to get the big time 15 years ago, these days we’re more than happy to have a good footballing side at the level we belong, Premier League would be punching well above our weight.

You invested £1.3 million on the highly-rated Nahki Wells. Good signing?

Worth the money alone just to see the humiliation Bradford had to suffer! He started very well with 2 goals in 2 games, and I didn’t expect him to hit the ground running as we have a totally different style of play to Bradford. The time to judge him properly is next season with a full pre season behind him, but when you compare £8m for Jordan Rhodes and £6m for Dwight Gayle, it seems a good deal for a natural finisher.

Mark Robins has often used 3-5-2 this season. Is that an effective system?

I’m a massive fan. For me, if you have the wing back to make it work, it is the best formation you can use. But without the wing backs it would fail. It gives you the luxury of 3 defenders and 3 midfielders without having to sacrifice a striker. Adam Hammill and Paul Dixon have the decent level of pace, defensive nouse and crossing ability to make it work, we’re very fortunate and it’s given us some of the best football we’ve ever seen played, even if we don’t always get the rewards.

Best moment as a Terriers fan.

Beating the Blades to go up

The 2012 play off final against Sheffield United. It will never, ever be beaten. We spent a whole decade out of the Championship and the aim all that time was to get back there, it was one hell of a wait and involved a lot of pain and frustration, namely 3 previous failed play-off attempts. We didn’t finish the season well and weren’t really expecting to win them, but Grayson’s tactics got us to a penalty shoot out at a scorching Wembley. We missed our first 3 penalties… when that happens in football, you’ve basically lost, but this one went all the way to the keepers, and for all those years of pain to come to an end in that one moment was magical, the scenes on YouTube are pure exhilaration.

The worst…

Probably the previous year, again in a play-off final. We were incredibly unlucky not to get automatic promotion with 87 points which was absolutely gutting. After getting back an emotional semi final against Bournemouth via another penalty shoot out, we took 35,000 fans to the final (which is ridiculous for a town our size). Clark got it wrong and we lost 3-0, a devastating day. The small time post-match attitude from Peterborough fans that day is why our games will always be grudge matches. Sending them down on the last day last season was sweet revenge.

What did you think of Lee Clark?

Lee Clark

I didn’t like him. I was buzzing when we sacked him, games under his tenure had become a chore. His first year was good, with some exciting young players, namely Rhodes, Pilkington and Drinkwater, but he eventually got desperate, turned us into a horrible side of bullies and signed has-beens on huge wages. I find him in general to be a thoroughly dislikeable bloke. Some of our fans respect him for some good games, but that was down to the money given to him by Hoyle, who eventually realised we needed a tactician in Grayson.

Who are some of your favourite ever players at Huddersfield?

Andy Booth is probably our biggest modern day legend, with 150 goals. Pilkington was magical at times, and we’ll always have Jordan Rhodes’ goals to thank for us being where we are (his transfer fee will continue to help us for years to come). At the moment, Alex Smithies is probably my favourite player; a local lad that came through the academy, been a regular for years now but still only 23, and was the hero at Wembley.

Who would you say are your biggest rivals?

It’s strange in Yorkshire, because there are lots of local derbies but only one proper rivalry (the Sheffield derby). So different fans of different clubs will see different clubs as their main rivals, and it’ll be down to your upbringing, how often you play each other, and if you know any of their fans to have banter with. For me, it’s Bradford, so being so far ahead of them in recent years has been sweet, but for most of our fans it’s Leeds.

Thanks for answering our questions. Your score prediction?

I’m writing this before we’ve played Forest so things could change, but at the moment we’re back to full strength after a tough period of being without 4 of our best players. You can never be sure in football but if Clark does the double over Robins then it’ll make no sense to us whatsoever! 30 of our 34 games this season have only been decided by the odd goal, I expect it’ll be another tight one with us edging it 1-0.

My thanks again to Luke Sipka for his answers.

Gabriel's Weekend Predictions: 15th February

FA Cup

The Premier League’s top four teams are playing against one another in this FA Cup weekend, as Man City play Chelsea while Arsenal host Liverpool. It is guaranteed that a Championship club will reach the quarter-finals, as Sheffield Wednesday play Charlton, and the lowest ranked side left, League One Sheffield United, have a winnable home tie against Nottingham Forest.

Sunderland vs. Southampton

Adam Lallana

Of these two, Southampton are the team who could benefit most from FA Cup success. Sunderland are already in the final of the League Cup, and are deeply embroiled in a relegation battle. Southampton are eight games unbeaten, almost guaranteed to finish in the top half of the Premier League, and Mauricio Pochettino will look to chase silverware to add gloss to their campaign. Southampton have a wealth of talented players in their squad, most notably Jay Rodriguez and Adam Lallana, but Sunderland seem to be reliant on a good performance from Adam Johnson. This will be the fourth time these teams meet this season, but Southampton can record their first win against Sunderland from another long trip up to Wearside. 1-2.

Cardiff vs. Wigan

Ole Gunnar Solskjaer

There might be a division between these two clubs, but if the impact their respective new managers have made is anything to go by, there is not a gulf in class by any means. If the Premier League season started when Solskjaer took over at Cardiff, they would be seven points adrift of safety. If the Championship season started when Rosler took the reins at Wigan, they would be near the automatic promotion places. The quality of these two squads is very similar, and the sturdiness of Wigan’s defence means they should be able to earn a replay, in a close contest. 1-1.

Sheff Wed vs. Charlton

Leon Best

The winners of this all-Championship contest will be just one game away from a trip to Wembley. Reaching the quarter finals will be a great achievement for either of them, given that they have spent most of the season struggling in a relegation battle. Sheffield Wednesday were unbeaten in eleven, before they fell to a 3-0 home defeat to Wigan on Tuesday. Charlton, on the other hand, have lost their last four in the league and currently sit inside the relegation places. Wednesday are in much better overall form, and have recently brought in a few loanees to freshen up their squad, most notably striker Leon Best. Home advantage could see the Owls through. 1-0.

Man City vs. Chelsea

Branislav Ivanovic

Time for Manchester City to prove their invincibility at home. They now have Chelsea and Barcelona at the Etihad in the space of three days, before their return to league action. It was only a couple of weeks ago that this fixture was played in the league – Chelsea won 1-0 - and City will want revenge for that defeat. The other factor is Chelsea dropped points in the title race in midweek, conceding a late equalizer at West Brom, after Branislav Ivanovic put them ahead. The hosts have had all week to prepare for their next two matches, which will define their chances of winning multiple honours this season. 2-1.

Everton vs. Swansea

Wilfried Bony

A surprise result could be on the cards here, as Roberto Martinez faces his old club. So far, Garry Monk seems to have improved performances at Swansea, with a respectable four points from two games. Everton meanwhile, have gone off the boil lately, with just one win in their last four league games, although two of them were against Liverpool and Tottenham. These are two teams who try to play positive, possession football. Wilfried Bony is a quality striker for Swansea, and he has the ability to have an impact, in what could be an entertaining contest. 1-2.

Sheff Utd vs. Nottm Forest

Harry Maguire

Sheffield United might be the lowest-ranked side in the FA Cup, but they are not to be underestimated, as Nigel Clough’s side have already beaten Premier League opposition twice. Their main problem in the league has been goals, with young centre-back Harry Maguire in fact being their top scorer. They do have a couple of games in hand on those above them in the relegation battle, and a squad with much potential, so they should get out of trouble. After a big league win at Huddersfield, Nottingham Forest are now just five points away from the automatic promotion places in the Championship, although they have just lost midfielder Henri Lansbury to a long-term injury. The outcome of this one might well be a replay. 1-1.

Arsenal vs. Liverpool

Daniel Sturridge

Liverpool are just three points behind Arsenal. They look, potentially, to be gate-crashing the Premier League title race, as Daniel Sturridge has now scored in eight consecutive games. The Reds recently beat Arsenal 5-1 in the league just a week ago, and that result might have damaged morale for Arsene Wenger’s side. They played with very little confidence against Manchester United on Wednesday, and tend to struggle against the big teams. The other factor is, Arsenal have got to play Bayern Munich on Wednesday, whereas Liverpool have not got to play in Europe this year, so a run in the cup will serve only to build confidence. 1-2.

Brighton vs. Hull

Steve Bruce

Brighton have kept an impressive eight clean sheets since mid-December. They are building their Championship play-off push on an ability to control games, and restrict their opponents to limited time on the ball. Hull are just three points above the Premier League drop zone, but going out of the cup would not benefit them at all. Steve Bruce's side have lost five out of seven league games since New Year, scoring just three times, and losing again on Monday could create a downward cycle of momentum. Combined, these two teams have scored a total of fifty-seven goals from fifty-six games, so this could be a bore draw. 0-0.

The Championship

The big games in the Championship this weekend, are at the bottom. We have another Yorkshire Derby as Doncaster, who have developed some good home form over recent weeks, host a Barnsley side who have only won once away. Bolton will be looking to put an end to their slide towards the bottom when they travel to Millwall, who have got off to a rather uninspiring start under Ian Holloway, with just one win in six. At the top, Burnley have the opportunity to open up a six point lead over third place if they win at Bournemouth, with QPR not playing play-off contenders Reading until Sunday. 

Birmingham vs. Huddersfield

Lee Clark

With more solid away performances, Birmingham took three points from two games, with a win at Charlton and narrow defeat to Watford. Now, the Blues have surely got to put an end their run of ten games without a home win. Huddersfield’s away form is hardly more impressive. They have lost five of their last six on the road, and Nahki Wells has not quite built on scoring twice in his first two appearances, with no goals in four since. Huddersfield tend to play with three at the back, and that might give Birmingham’s key man, Chris Burke, a chance to create space down the right wing. Lee Clark will come up trumps against Huddersfield, his former club. 2-1.

Bournemouth vs. Burnley

Tokelo Rantie

In the reverse fixture back in November, Tokelo Rantie scored a peach with his first goal for Bournemouth, as the Cherries took a surprise point at Turf Moor. Little has changed in four months. Bournemouth are still midtable, Burnley are still serious promotion contenders, and Tokelo Rantie has only netted once in eleven appearances since that day. Due to his lack of contribution, Eddie Howe has recently signed Yann Kermorgant to compete to play up front with Lewis Grabban, but Kermorgant has not completed ninety minutes for them yet. Danny Ings and Sam Vokes for Burnley, who have stayed injury free thus far, is looking a more threatening strike-partnership than any pairing Bournemouth can put out. 1-2.

Doncaster vs. Barnsley

Billy Sharp

This is the twelfth of twenty Yorkshire Derbies this season, and one of the most important we’ll see. A win for Doncaster, who have played more games than those below, would take them eight points clear of the drop zone, and maintain some strong home form from Paul Dickov’s side. The Rovers have not scored in either of their last two games, but that was against organized sides in Middlesbrough and Brighton. The main problem is a three match suspension to Billy Sharp, who is their best bet in terms of goals, with Chris Brown not scoring many and Theo Robinson struggling with an injury. A second away win of the season for Barnsley would give them real hope of staying in this league, as the Tykes have two games in hand on Millwall, who they play next Saturday. Chris O’Grady continued his scoring form with another goal against Ipswich last week, but the Tykes could not hold onto a two goal lead. Doncaster will grab a third home win of the year, and edge towards Championship survival. 1-0.

Ipswich vs. Blackpool

Mick McCarthy

This will be a long nine-hour round trip for Blackpool fans, and if their current away form is anything to go by, it could feel even longer. The Tangerines have lost each of their last seven games on the road, although they did manage to rescue a home point against Nottingham Forest last time out. By contrast, Ipswich’s home record is impressive. Since Mick McCarthy took over last November, they have won eighteen out of a possible thirty-one league games at Portman Road. To boot, the Tractor Boys now have a striker playing with confidence in David McGoldrick, who has netted three in three. A form striker is a commodity Blackpool do not have at the moment, and outside the relegation places, only Doncaster have scored less goals than Barry Ferguson’s new side. Comfortable home win. 2-0.

Millwall vs. Bolton

Steve Morison

Two teams who are dangerously close to the relegation zone. Both Barnsley and Charlton have two games in hand on these sides, making this match something of a ‘must win’. Millwall have only won one game in six since Ian Holloway took over. Steve Morison managed to score his fifth goal of the season to grab a point late on at Yeovil on Tuesday, but generally, the Bristolian has hardly had the typical ‘new manager’ impact. Bolton could change their boss, too. Dougie Freedman is now under pressure, after another defeat to Lancashire rivals Burnley. Given the overall quality of Bolton’s squad, they should not be anywhere near the relegation zone, regardless of the financial problems. 1-1.

Watford vs. Middlesbrough

Tomas Mejias

Middlesbrough have probably picked the wrong time to be signing a goalkeeper, as Aitor Karanka has brought in Tomas Mejias from Real Madrid’s B side. But Boro have kept eight clean sheets from their last ten matches, each of which veteran keeper Shay Given played in, so you would not have thought that any change would be necessary. Middlesbrough visit Watford, who look to be regaining some form, as two home wins to nil sandwiched a respectable draw at leaders Leicester. In their last match, a 1-0 victory over Birmingham, Troy Deeney netted his first league goal since Boxing Day. These are two teams who look to be bringing in exotic, foreign players to try and win promotion. It may take both of them the rest of this season, to consolidate under their respective new managers. 2-1.

QPR vs. Reading

Clint Hill

QPR are usually reliable at home, having dropped points at Loftus Road on just four occasions this season. However, they have only taken six points from eight games against teams currently in the top seven, and their lack of appetite for the big games is surprising, given the squad’s experience. Reading have been surprisingly inconsistent since the turn of the year. After hitting seven past Bolton, they lost at Ipswich, and after beating Blackpool and Millwall comfortably, they lost 2-0 to Sheffield Wednesday. It is difficult to know which Reading side will show. We can expect QPR to have long spells on the ball, but with Charlie Austin out they could lack potency going forward, and in Le Fondre and Pogrebnyak, Reading have better striking options. With Dunne and Hill aging to some extent, the Royals might just thrive on the counter attack. 1-2.