Tuesday 8 April 2014

Gabriel's Championship Predictions: 8th April

On Tuesday night’s round of fixtures, the focus is largely on the battle to beat the drop. Charlton could go five points clear, with games in hand on those in the relegation zone with a win over fellow strugglers Yeovil. Barnsley and Millwall look to keep their survival hopes alive, but they both have unenviable opponents, playing Burnley and Wigan respectively. Reading could cement their play-off place with a win at in-form Bournemouth, but a win for the Cherries would see them move just two points off sixth place. Here’s a preview of the action.

Keith Treacy
Barnsley vs. Burnley
Barnsley drew 0-0 at home to Brighton on Saturday. Despite having far less possession than the visitors, they created more chances and limited Brighton to few shooting opportunities. The suspension to right-back Kelvin Etuhu will not be too much of a blow for Barnsley. In Jack Hunt they have a full-back who, though at times defensively vulnerable, likes to move forward and get the ball into the box quickly. That is the type of player they need. Burnley were behind for the vast majority of their match against Watford, but ended Saturday having gained a point on QPR and Derby, both of whom lost. Given Burnley’s ten point cushion, their injury problems are actually a good opportunity for fringe players Keith Treacy, Ross Wallace and David Edgar, to play for their places in the Premier League. Those three have struggled for game time this season, due to Sean Dyche’s preference for a consistent first eleven, so now is the time for them to prove their worth. 0-1.

Blackburn vs. QPR
If QPR had Jordan Rhodes in their team, they would be much closer to Burnley. The Scottish striker has scored more goals for Blackburn this season (23), than QPR have away from home (19). Going into the play-offs next month, QPR fans may be boosted by the return of Charlie Austin, who made his first appearance since January, as a substitute in the 2-1 loss at Bournemouth. Interestingly, Austin was put on fifteen minutes before Bobby Zamora, which suggests Harry Redknapp believes he can make an instant impact. Austin’s form and fitness will be a key factor in QPR’S play-off chances. Blackburn are unbeaten in six, scoring sixteen goals in the process. QPR may have more of the ball, but at the moment, it is the hosts who possess more in-form players, capable of making the difference. 2-1.

Bournemouth vs. Reading
Daniel Williams
There are a cluster of sides five points below Reading at this stage, but of those, Bournemouth are the only in-form side. A draw will serve the Royals quite nicely, whereas Bournemouth are so close to the play-offs, they will be thinking “we’ve got nothing to fear, we might as well go for this”. Eddie Howe’s side naturally play on the front foot too, and this is a factor which could feed into Reading’s hands. They were strong on the counter attack once again on Saturday, nicking a 1-0 win at Charlton, thanks to a late goal from Daniel Williams. Nigel Adkins had left the American out of the side for much of March, but a man of the match performance on Saturday suggests he has benefitted from that exclusion. If Reading get a result here, it is hard to see any other side getting that final play-off spot. 1-2.

Charlton vs. Yeovil
The fixture list has been kind to Charlton, who have six home games this April. Although they lost the first to Reading on Saturday, the next two are against relegation rivals Yeovil and Barnsley, and the following three Valley visitors will be midtable sides with little to play for. However, Charlton do face the possibility of Yeovil Town going level on points with them with a win on Tuesday night, albeit having played two games more. The Glovers picked up a 2-1 win at Blackpool on Saturday, winning despite the absence of Ishmael Miller, who refused to play for the manager. Gary Johnson says that Miller’s personality was not ‘conducive’ to the environment he wanted to create, but the problem is, Yeovil would already be goners were it not for Miller’s goals. Without that attacking quality, I cannot see Johnson keeping them up. 2-0.

Doncaster vs. Bolton
Joe Mason
Doncaster fell to a rare home defeat on Saturday. Their 3-1 loss against Birmingham was their first at the Keepmoat since Boxing Day. James Husband had began to look more solid for Rovers in recent weeks, but it was his sloppy play in the box which led to Birmingham’s equalizer, while the defending for Birmingham’s second was simply a collective failure to keep shape. This was uncharacteristic of Doncaster, because before that match, they had only conceded seventeen goals in their last seventeen games. Bolton are looking a solid outfit themselves, having kept five clean sheets since mid-February. They did it again on Saturday when they won 1-0 at Huddersfield, thanks to a late goal from Joe Mason, his fifth goal in just eleven starts for the Trotters. Bolton to extend their unbeaten away run to six games with a draw, leaving Doncaster in need of one more win to be sure of safety. 1-1.

Huddersfield vs. Ipswich
Huddersfield are in poor form, having taken just three points from their last seven matches. Their U21s are top of their league by some distance, and you wonder if Mark Robins will be tempted to cherry pick one or two younger players from the Development Squad, just to shake things up. Yes they had plenty of the ball against Bolton, but the chances they created were either from set pieces, or from looping, hopeful crosses. Nahki Wells aside, Huddersfield are lacking pace and guile in the final third at the moment. Ipswich lost 2-0 at Blackburn on Saturday, with Christophe Berra looking largely at fault for the opening goal. However, the centre-back has been a key player for the Tractor Boys in recent weeks, and was arguably unlucky to miss out on March’s Player of the Month award to Ravel Morrison. Ipswich might grind out a narrow away win. 0-1.

Leicester vs. Brighton
Oscar Garcia
Leicester are over the promotion line, but they still have a couple of things to play for. They are yet to wrap up the title, and they will be hoping to hold onto their unbeaten run. The Foxes are undefeated in an impressive twenty-one league games, and their last loss actually came against Brighton, a 3-1 defeat at the AMEX back in December. Seagulls fans will be forgiven for not joining in with the “let’s all have a disco” chants. Oscar Garcia’s side are without a win in five games, losing three of them, meaning they are five points off sixth place Reading. Leicester will be playing Premier League football next season, and the way things are looking, Brighton are unlikely to join them. 2-0.

Middlesbrough vs. Birmingham
If only home form counted, thirteenth-place Middlesbrough would be two points off the play-offs. If only away form counted, eighteenth-place Birmingham would be in the play-offs. Middlesbrough have only lost three games at the Riverside, just four teams in the Championship have lost fewer home encounters. Meanwhile, Birmingham have won a remarkable nine times on the road, and only Leicester and Reading have won more. Both teams come into this game off the back of a weekend win, too. A Nathaniel Chalobah goal saw Middlesbrough beat Derby on Saturday, while a brace from Federico Macheda helped Birmingham on their way to three points at Doncaster. Both managers will feel confident of getting a result. 1-1.

Nottm Forest vs. Sheff Wed
Gonzalo Jara
Nottingham Forest’s winless run showed no signs of ending when they lost 2-1 at home to Millwall, with Gonzalo Jara at fault for both goals. He is clearly not a natural right-back, with tendencies to stay on his feet and hold position, which are more suited to a sitting midfield role. The problem is, a host of injuries in the centre-back area has meant regular right-back Greg Halford has had to move, so Jara has been forced to fill in the gaps. The worrying thing for Forest is that Sheffield Wednesday’s left side is very strong, particularly with Michail Antonio back fit. On his return from injury, the two-footed winger scored at Leicester, and won the man of the match award. Him, and possibly the energetic Jeremy Helan at left-back, can combine to cause Jara problems. After Saturday’s defeat, I cannot see Forest getting back into the play-off race. 1-2.

Watford vs. Leeds
Despite being talked about as play-off contenders at various times this season, Watford and Leeds are ten and sixteen points respectively off sixth place. Watford’s chances next season will be boosted if Troy Deeney can replicate his twenty-one goal haul. Arguably the most underrated striker in the Championship, Deeney netted his seventh goal in seven games against Burnley on Saturday. Leeds’ chances are dependent on off-field issues, as much as on. It looks as though the takeover of Massimo Cellino will go through, and given the Italian businessman’s legal convictions, the future of Leeds United could be in jeopardy. At the moment though, a lot of Leeds fans are happy that the deal is going through, and it might give the players a boost on a short-term basis. They will need it, after four straight defeats. 1-1.

Wigan vs. Millwall
Martyn Waghorn
At no point this season have Millwall wanted Yeovil to get a result, but that is their best hope of them catching Charlton. In the very plausible scenario that Charlton win and Millwall lose on Tuesday, they will be five points off safety having played two games more. Lions fans were singing non-stop in the win at Nottingham Forest, which suggests they still believe their side can stay up, but you suspect that Millwall have left themselves too much to do. Wigan managed to grind out a 1-0 win over Leeds on Saturday, thanks to a first half goal from Martyn Waghorn. The Latics need ten more points to guarantee a play-off place, but that’s under the extreme assumption that two sides below Reading take maximum points from their remaining games. In truth, Wigan have done enough already. 2-1.

Blackpool vs. Derby
The reverse fixture back in December saw Derby run out 5-1 winners at Pride Park, in front of the Sky cameras. In the run up to Christmas, they were scoring at will, but since then the goals have dried up to some extent, and the Rams have failed to net five times since the start of March. Blackpool are not the most efficient goalscorers themselves. Despite 59% possession against Yeovil on Saturday, the Tangerines had just three shots on target, and did not create enough decent chances. That result means Blackpool cannot quite consider themselves out of relegation trouble. These two teams have scored a combined total of just thirty goals from thirty-four games since the turn of the year, so a goalless draw might be on the cards. 0-0.

Last week…

On Saturday, Gabriel had one of the worst ever prediction weeks. No correct scores, and just two correct results out of a possible twelve. The right calls were Leicester to beat Sheffield Wednesday, and Wigan to beat Leeds, but late goals for Burnley, Middlesbrough and Bolton meant that none of the other predictions came off. 

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